Colorado vs. UCLA score prediction by college football analytic model
With just one win in Pac-12 play so far this season, Colorado is reeling in the second half of the season, but with a chance to make a statement in a Prime-time matchup against No. 23 ranked UCLA in college football's Week 9 action on Saturday.
- Buffs dropped 3 of the last 4
- CU needs 2 wins to become bowl eligible
- But all 5 of its remaining opponents have winning records
- UCLA is 9th nationally in rushing production per game
- Bruins are 10th in FBS in scoring defense, allowing 14.9 ppg
- What can we make of the game? Let's check in with SP+ prediction model
Colorado vs. UCLA prediction
The simulations strongly favor the Bruins to take care of business at home.
SP+ estimates that UCLA will defeat Colorado by a projected score of 38 to 19 with an expected scoring margin of 19.2 points in the game for the Bruins.
The model gives UCLA a strong 87 percent chance to win the game outright.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How accurate is the model? So far, SP+ is 212-207-11 (50.6%) straight-up and 200-222-8 (47.4%) against the spread this season.
Point spread
UCLA is a 14.5 point favorite against Colorado, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 60.5 points for the game.
SI lists the moneyline odds for UCLA at -699 and for Colorado at +425.
If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...
- UCLA -14.5
- Bruins on the ML at -699
- Bet under 60.5 points
Computer prediction
Other analytic tools also favor UCLA to win the game.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer predictive model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.
The index projects UCLA to win the game in 84.1 percent of its simulations, or 16,820 of the model's predictions. Colorado wins out in the remaining 15.9 percent of sims.
By taking the difference between each team's projected scoring margin per game, the computer predicts that UCLA will defeat Colorado by 12.7 points, or if we round up, by 13 points in the game, not enough to cover the line.
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Colorado at UCLA schedule
When: Sat., Oct. 28
Time: 4:30 p.m. Pacific
TV: ABC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)
More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams