Florida State vs. Wake Forest score prediction by football analytic model

Fresh off a statement comeback victory against a ranked ACC rival, the conference-favorite Seminoles hit the road this weekend as No. 4 Florida State squares off against Wake Forest in college football's Week 9 action on Saturday.

FSU has scored 30-plus points in 13 straight games
Noles scored 21 unanswered in 4th quarter after trailing Duke last week
Wake is 1-3 in ACC play and is 13th in the conference
Deacons lost 3 of the last 4 and didn't surpass 20 points in those games
What can we make of this game? Let's check in with the SP+ prediction model

Florida State vs. Wake Forest predictions

The simulations favor the Seminoles to win comfortably against the Demon Deacons.

SP+ projects that Florida State will defeat Wake Forest by an estimated score of 34 to 19, with a projected scoring margin of 14.4 points in the game.

The model gives FSU a strong 80 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How accurate is the model? So far, SP+ is 212-207-11 (50.6%) straight-up and 200-222-8 (47.4%) against the spread this season.

Point spread

Florida State is a 20.5 point favorite against Wake, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 52.5 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for FSU at -2500 and for Wake at +800.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

Wake +20.5
FSU on the ML at -2500
Bet over 52.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic models also believe Florida State will win handily.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer predictive tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Florida State wins the game in 91.9 percent of the index's simulations, or 18,380 of the predictions in the model. Wake wins the remaining 8.1 percent of sims.

By taking the difference between each team's projected scoring margin per game, the computer predicts that Florida State will defeat Wake Forest by 23 points, enough to cover the line.

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Florida State vs. Wake Forest schedule

When: Sat., Oct. 28
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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