Florida vs. LSU: Score Prediction, Game Pick
A shot at defending its SEC West title went up in smoke last week after losing a third game, but CFP No. 19 ranked LSU returns home with a shot to make a statement against rival Florida and move into contention for a higher-quality bowl in college football's Week 11 action on Saturday.
- LSU is 3rd nationally in scoring, averaging 45.2 points per game
- And it's 3rd in passing and 9th in rushing production on offense
- Florida is one win away from bowl eligibility at 5-4 overall
- Gators have allowed 39 or more points in three straight games
- What can we expect in the game? SP+ prediction model picks a winner
LSU vs. Florida prediction
The simulations favor the Tigers to hold serve at home against their rivals.
SP+ projects that LSU will defeat Florida by an estimated score of 37 to 25 and to win the game by a projected scoring margin of 12.6 points.
The model gives LSU a 77 percent chance to beat the Gators at home.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 262-271-13 (49.2%) in its picks against the spread.
Point spread
LSU is a 14.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 66.5 points for the game.
SI lists the moneyline odds for LSU at -699 and for Florida at +425.
If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...
- Florida +14.5
- LSU to win -699
- Under 66.5 points
Computer prediction
Other analytic tools also favor LSU to win the game.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
The index predicts that LSU will win the game in 87.5 percent of its simulations, or 17,500 of the predictions.
Florida wins out in the remaining 12.5 percent of sims, or 2,500 projections.
By taking the difference between each team's scoring margin per game, the index predicts that LSU will defeat Florida by 14.1 points, not quite enough to cover.
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Florida at LSU game time
When: Sat., Nov. 11
Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: SEC Network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)
More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams