Michigan vs. Penn State: Score Prediction, Game Pick
Big Ten East rivals meet in Happy Valley this weekend in a battle between two teams in the top-10 of the latest College Football Playoff rankings, as No. 3 Michigan goes on the road against a 10th ranked Penn State team looking to make a statement.
- PSU has consistently lagged behind OSU and Michigan in the East and a win here would help change that narrative
- Lions already lost to the Buckeyes a few weeks ago
- But a win here would put them 1 game behind OSU in the division
- Wolverines are No. 1 in scoring defense and 5th in points per game
- Michigan has scored 40-plus points in its last 5 straight games
- Let's check in with the SP+ prediction model ahead of the game
Michigan vs. Penn State score prediction
The simulations favor the Wolverines to win a close game this weekend.
SP+ estimates that Michigan will defeat Penn State by a projected score of 27 to 21 with a forecasted scoring margin of 5.9 points for the Wolverines in the game.
The model gives Michigan a 63 percent chance to win the game outright.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 262-271-13 (49.2%) in its picks against the spread.
Point spread
Michigan is a 4.5 point favorite against Penn State, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 45.5 points for the game.
SI lists the moneyline odds for UM at -200 and for PSU at +150.
If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...
- Michigan -4.5
- Wolverines on the ML -200
- Bet over 45.5 points
Computer prediction
Other analytic tools disagree over which team will win the game on Saturday.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
That model actually favors Penn State to upset Michigan outright, winning out in 50.9 percent of its simulations, compared to the Wolverines, who win in the remaining 49.1 percent of sims.
The computer projects that Penn State will defeat Michigan by 1.9 points, or by 2 if we round up, not enough to cover the line.
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Michigan at Penn State game time
When: Sat., Nov. 11
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)
More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams