Paul Finebaum names 3 teams with any real chance at winning College Football Playoff

ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum believes only three programs have an honest shot to win this year's college football national championship. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The 2025-26 College Football Playoff bracket is officially set, marking the second year of the 12-team format. While the expanded field was designed to provide greater access to programs across the country, debates about the actual depth of the championship field have intensified since the selection committee revealed the seeds.

Analysts have spent the days following the announcement parsing through the contenders to determine which schools are actually built for a month-long run.

ESPN college football analyst Paul Finebaum weighed in on the field during a Monday appearance on McElroy and Cubelic in the Morning. Despite a dozen teams entering the postseason with title hopes, the longtime Southeastern Conference expert expressed skepticism about the parity at the top. He argued that the list of squads with a legitimate chance to hoist the trophy in Miami Gardens remains incredibly slim.

Finebaum suggested that while the playoff invites more participants than the previous four-team era, it does not necessarily create more realistic winners. When asked specifically how many programs he trusts to navigate the bracket and win the national championship, his assessment focused on roster balance and statistical dominance shown throughout the regular season.

Paul Finebaum identifies three realistic title contenders

Finebaum pointed to the Big Ten Conference and the SEC as the only leagues producing true threats this winter. He specifically highlighted the two programs that recently clashed in Indianapolis, along with a familiar powerhouse from the south. According to Finebaum, the conversation starts and ends with the Indiana Hoosiers, Ohio State Buckeyes and Georgia Bulldogs.

"I really think you start with the top two," Finebaum said. "I don’t think there’s any question about Indiana or Ohio State. You can add, I think, Georgia to that mix."

This exclusive list notably leaves out the Oregon Ducks. Even though Oregon secured the No. 5 seed and a first-round matchup against the James Madison Dukes, Finebaum admitted he struggled to view them as a championship-caliber team.

Ohio State head coach Ryan Day seeks to lead his Buckeyes to the program's first-ever back-to-back national championships. | Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

"I’m struggling to put Oregon in there," he said. "I think this is a real challenge for me."

The analyst remains confident in Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day despite his team's recent 13-10 loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game. Finebaum noted that the Buckeyes played well statistically but were undone by turnovers and a missed field goal. He theorized that the defeat might not have shaken the coach's confidence and may spur the Buckeyes to back-to-back championships.

"Something deep down in Ryan Day right now tells me he's not all that upset," Finebaum said regarding the loss.

Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti aims to cap a historic Cinderella run with a national championship. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Beyond the primary trio, Finebaum offered a slight concession for the Texas A&M Aggies. He mentioned that their roster construction allows them to handle physical matchups.

"I think Texas A&M has a path," Finebaum stated. "They’re built pretty well."