Oklahoma vs. Arizona: Alamo Bowl prediction, pick

Brent Venables had very high praise for his opponent coming into their matchup, one of four games set for the Thursday schedule of the College Football Bowl Season. Oklahoma's head coach said of Arizona that no team in the country played better in the second half of the season, and he just might be right. Now, that improved Wildcats team faces off against the Sooners in the 2023 Alamo Bowl game.

Oklahoma: Sooners started 7-0 including a win over playoff-bound Texas, but dropped two straight midseason and finished 10-2, ranking 3rd in scoring offense
Arizona: Wildcats started 3-3, but won their final six games, including against four ranked teams, finishing top 25 in scoring and 12th in passing per game, and were 3rd in Pac-12 standings

Oklahoma vs. Arizona prediction, preview

When: Thurs., Dec. 28
Time: 9:15 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

2023 Alamo Bowl game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Arizona -2
Total: 58.5 points
Moneyline: OU +125 | AZ -145
FPI pick: Oklahoma 75.5% to win

What to watch for

1. Change at QB. Dillon Gabriel is in the transfer portal, meaning we'll see former 5-star prospect Jackson Arnold get the nod for the Sooners. In addition, the offense is getting new leadership after Jeff Lebby's departure, with Seth Littrell stepping in. Arnold went 18 of 24 with 202 yards and 2 TDs in limited action, but he'll have the bulk of OU's superb receiving skill to lean on, a unit that ranked 6th nationally in production and was good for almost 14 yards per pass. Arizona was 72nd against the pass, allowing almost 12 yards per throw.

2. Key to the game. Arizona's passing offense vs. Oklahoma's air defense. The Wildcats' QB/WR combination is hard to beat right now. Noah Fifita has enlivened Arizona's offense since taking the quarterback job, hitting over 2,500 yards passing with 23 touchdowns and is working with solid receivers, led by Tetairoa McMillan, who has over 1,240 yards and has scored 10 touchdowns.

Arizona is 6th nationally in third down conversions offensively. OU is 97th against the pass on the year but makes up for it by being 2nd nationally with 19 intercepted passes, boasting a solid linebacker corps that can clog up intermediate throwing lanes and generate pressure on the passer with some regularity.

3. Battle at the line. Oklahoma has lost plenty of talent up front, including three starters on the line in addition to tailback Marcus Major, who is transferring. A sudden drop in protection quality while fielding a freshman quarterback is never ideal, but especially not against an Arizona front seven that is 18th nationally with 2.7 sacks recorded per game on average or 19th in run defense, surrendering 3.44 ypc.

Oklahoma vs. Arizona prediction

Arizona's downfield game is intact, it can run the ball well enough to balance things out, and boasts a good-enough pass rush combination at the line to make things difficult for the Sooners' patchwork line and inexperienced quarterback.

But there's enough of a talent gap across the board here to favor Oklahoma. Despite its personnel losses, this offense still features a credible downfield threat capable of creating space and moving into scoring position. And it has the defensive firepower to create pressure and challenge the Wildcats' air attack.

College Football HQ picks...

Oklahoma wins 34-27
In an upset
And hits the over

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