Penn State vs. Utah: Rose Bowl Game prediction, preview
We'll get a Big Ten vs. Pac-12 matchup in the Rose Bowl Game this year as Penn State and Utah square off on the same field for the first time ever on Monday.
Penn State reached 10 wins for the first time since the 2019 season, losing to College Football Playoff teams Michigan and Ohio State, but averaging more than 41 points per game in the last month of the regular season.
Utah won the Pac-12 Championship Game for the second-straight year, knocking USC out of the playoff behind a strong offensive effort led by Cameron Rising that took out the Trojans by a 47-24 count.
The Utes return to Pasadena for the second-straight postseason, too, a year after taking part in an instant classic against Ohio State, losing 48-45 to the Buckeyes.
Penn State also put on a show the last time it made the Rose Bowl, losing in a high-scoring 52-49 affair against USC during the 2016 postseason.
Here's what you need to know about the game, with updated betting lines and game odds along with our own final prediction.
Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. Utah game prediction, preview
Penn State vs. Utah Rose Bowl prediction, preview
How to watch, stream
When: Mon., Jan. 2
Time: 5 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Live stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
Rose Bowl game odds, point spread, betting lines
Game lines according to SI Sportsbook and may change after publication
Point spread: Penn State -1.5 (-118) | Utah +1.5 (-110)
Total: 54 | Over -110 | Under -118
Moneyline: Penn State -125 | Utah +100
FPI prediction: Utah has the 57.4 percent chance to win the game outright, compared to Penn State at 42.6 percent, according to the Football Power Index computer prediction model that picks winners by simulating teams' seasons 20,000 times.
Spread consensus pick: Penn State -1.5 (55% of bets are on the Nittany Lions)
More: Penn State vs. Utah picks, predictions by computer model
Penn State betting trends
+ Penn State is 8-3-1 against the spread overall this season
+ PSU has lost 10 straight against top 10 teams and is 1-1 ATS as an underdog this year
+ Nittany Lions are 6-0 against the spread in their last 6 games total
+ Penn State is 5-0 ATS in last 5 games after an ATS win
Utah betting trends
+ Utah is 8-5 against the spread overall this season
+ The under is 4-1 in Utah's last 5 games after a SU win
+ Utes are 6-1 ATS after gaining 450-plus yards last time out
+ Utah is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS when favored by fewer than 7 points
Rose Bowl Game: What you need to know
Penn State vs. Utah: What to watch in the Rose Bowl
1. Third down defense. Penn State and Utah both play superb defense on the money down this season. Utah allowed opponents to convert just 29.6 percent of the time, ranking 10th overall nationally among FBS teams. And the Nittany Lions surrendered conversions 30.6 percent of the time, good for 12th in FBS. Both quarterbacks hover around 60% completion on third down. Whichever gets more done in this situation will put their teams in position to win.
2. Penn State running the ball. Where the Nittany Lions want to go on offense, Nick Singleton will almost certainly take them there. The freshman tailback finished the season with 941 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging a solid 6.3 yards per rushing attempt. Penn State has its issues opening lanes for him, but the former 5-star is pretty good at creating space for himself, too. He'll have to against a physical Utah front seven that can hold backs to limited gains.
3. The replacements. Both teams are without key contributors on both sides of the ball. Penn State won't have star cornerback Joey Porter, Jr., its shutdown perimeter defensive ace, and the Utes will go without first-team All-American Clark Phillips in the corner. On offense, the Utes will miss lead tailback Tavion Thomas and star tight end Dalton Kincaid, who led the team in receiving and had 8 TD catches. Thomas Yassmin and Logan Kendall will get reps for Utah in place of Kincaid while Devaughn Vele and Money Parks (7 combined TDs) will sub for Thomas in the backfield.
Penn State vs. Utah: Rose Bowl Prediction
Fans of up-and-down passing football and good quarterback play should enjoy this game, pitting Utah's Cameron Rising against Penn State's sixth-year player Sean Clifford on the same field.
Both have the arms (and legs) to extend plays and both are playing behind solid offensive lines that protect passers well enough to make those plays.
Singleton has the burst at the point of attack to throw the Utes' superb scrimmage defenders out of position early in the game, something that can be done after watching Utah struggle against quality backfields like Florida and UCLA, both losses. That should, in turn, give Clifford more room to work his intermediate passing game.
Utah's protection unit is excellent at preventing negative plays and now it's going against the Big Ten's premier pass rush and its best at generating tackles for loss. In an evenly matched game just about anywhere on the field, Utah's slight third down advantage should carry the day. But it'll be close, and it'll take all four quarters.
College Football HQ Rose Bowl prediction: Utah 31, Penn State 27 (Utah +1.5, Over 54)
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