Tennessee vs. Iowa score prediction by college football expert model

This year's College Football Bowl Season is littered with several notable SEC vs. Big Ten matchups to highlight the 2023-24 postseason and New Year's Day brings us another in the annual Citrus Bowl game as Tennessee faces off against Iowa.

Iowa's offense was legendarily anemic all season, ranking 130th in passing production, 109th in rushing offense, and 130th nationally by scoring 16.6 points per game. But the Hawkeyes' defense was among the nation's very best, ranking 4th in the country by surrendering just 13.2 points per game, and was 5th in total defensive production.

Tennessee placed third in the SEC East standings after losses to Missouri and Georgia in consecutive weeks late in the season, and ranked 14th nationally in rushing output by averaging just under 203 yards on the ground per game.

What can we make of the matchup? For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to project the game.

Tennessee vs. Iowa prediction

The simulations favor the SEC team in this bowl matchup.

SP+ estimates that Tennessee will defeat Iowa by a projected score of 22 to 17 and to win the game by an expected 4.9 points.

The model gives the Volunteers a 61 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 381-354-14 (51.8%) in its picks against the spread.

Point spread

Tennessee is a 6 point favorite against Iowa, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 35.5 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -240 and for Iowa at +200.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

Iowa +6
Tennessee wins -240
Bet over 35.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic tools also favor Tennessee to win the game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index forecasts that Tennessee will win the game in 69.6 percent of its simulations, while Iowa comes out ahead in the remaining 30.4 percent of sims.

By taking each team's scoring margins per game into account, the computer projects that Tennessee will beat Iowa by 7.8 points, enough to cover the spread.

Bet on Iowa vs. Tennessee here

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2024 Citrus Bowl game time

When: Mon., Jan. 1
Time: 1 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)

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