Utah vs. Arizona score prediction by college football computer model
A battle between ranked conference rivals is set for Saturday in the Pac-12, as No. 22 Utah looks to avoid a second-straight loss and a third L in four games as it hits the road against up-and-coming No. 17 ranked Arizona.
- Arizona is a team on the make, winning four straight games, including three against ranked opponents, moving to 7-3 overall and 5-2 in conference play
- Wildcats have their best record since 2017 and sit third in the Pac-12 standings thanks in part to the nation's No. 25 ranked passing offense
- Utah has lost two of the last three, to the presumptive Pac-12 title game teams, falling to Oregon and most recently against No. 5 Washington
- Utes are just 118th throwing the ball but are 16th in scoring defense
What can we expect in the matchup? For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a grasp on how the game could turn out.
Utah vs. Arizona prediction
The simulations favor the road team this week, but by the slimmest of margins.
SP+ forecasts that Utah will take down Arizona by a projected score of 28 to 27 and win the game by a projected 0.5 points.
The model gives the Utes a 51 percent chance to win the game outright.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 298-299-13 (49.9%) in its picks against the spread after going 36-28 (56.3%) last week.
Point spread
Utah is a 1 point favorite against Arizona, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which lists the total at 44.5 points for the game.
SI lists the moneyline odds for Utah at -110 and for Arizona at -110.
If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...
- Utah to win -110
- Over 44.5 (-120)
Computer prediction
Other analytic models are split on the game this weekend.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
The index projects that Utah will win the game in 57.2 percent of its simulations, while Arizona came out the winner in the remaining 42.8 percent of sims.
If you're looking for a score prediction, FPI forecasts that Utah will defeat Arizona by 4.8 points in the game, enough to cover the line as 1 point favorites.
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Utah at Arizona game time
When: Sat., Nov. 18
Time: 12:30 p.m. Mountain
TV: Pac-12 Network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)
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