Beating the spread: Week 5 college football games that surprised Vegas

Many of the top games from the past weekend in college football were close affairs, but there were still several outcomes that stumped the oddsmakers, including another blowout loss that led to a head coach losing their job. These are the games that saw the biggest differential from their pre-game odds to their final results in Week 5 of the college football schedule.

Notre Dame 56, Arkansas 13

Four FBS schools have already fired their head coaches this season. In the games that immediately preceded those firings, those four schools spread differentials averaged 30 points. So much for teams playing for their beleaguered coaches. Arkansas was less than a touchdown underdog at home against 1-2 Notre Dame, but was absolutely crushed by the visiting Irish. The next day, Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman was relieved of his duties by the school’s administration.

Gametime odds: Notre Dame -5.5

Difference: 37.5 points

Duke 38, Syracuse 3

Duke quarterback Darian Mensah has thrown 13 touchdowns against just two interceptions for the Blue Devils this season. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Syracuse was on the opposite end of a mis-calculated spread the week previous when they upset Clemson at Clemson. The Orange quickly came back to earth, however, losing badly at home to Duke this past Saturday. Syracuse lost starting quarterback Steve Angeli to a season-ending Achilles injury in that Clemson game, and they struggled sustaining drives against the Blue Devils. Meanwhile, Duke was very efficient offensively, racking up over 500 yards of total offense, including 235 rushing.

Gametime odds: Duke -4.5

Difference: 30.5 points

Washington State 20, Colorado State 3

One can empathize with the oddsmakers for Washington State games this season. The Cougars are all over the board, with an average game differential of 22.5 points from the pre-game lines. After getting pounded by North Texas and Washington the previous two weeks, Washington State came back to post a victory on the road as 5.5 point underdogs at Colorado State. Despite the two blowout losses, they now have a winning record at 3-2 on the season going into a bye week.

Gametime odds: Washington State +5.5

Difference: 22.5 points

Iowa State 39, Arizona 14

Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht has led the Cyclones to a perfect 5-0 record to start the 2025 season. | Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

Iowa State was a favorite going into Saturday’s Big 12 contest against Arizona, and remains unbeaten after a convincing win over the Wildcats. It is likely the oddsmakers did not have much confidence in the Cyclones’ offense to be able to put a lot of points on the board, however, which accounts for the small number. Make no mistake, Rocco Becht and company have done what they have needed thus far in the 2025 season, but were averaging just over 21 points a game against FBS competition coming into Saturday’s contest.

Gametime odds: Iowa State -4.5

Difference: 20.5 points

Utah 48, West Virginia 14

West Virginia earned the big rivalry win over Pitt in the Backyard Brawl, but otherwise it has been a struggle for Rich Rodriguez’s team this season. The Mountaineers appear in this column for the second week in a row after another blowout loss to a Big 12 opponent. Utah was looking to avenge its own blowout loss to Texas Tech the week previous, and made amends by lighting up the scoreboard in Morgantown to move their record to 4-1 on the season, while West Virginia falls to 2-3.

Gametime odds: Utah -13.5

Difference: 20.5 points

Utah quarterback Devon Dampier got the Utes' offense rolling again against West Virginia on Saturday. | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Toledo 45, Akron 3

Toledo was a big favorite against Akron going into Saturday’s game, but they poured it on against their MAC rival, scoring 35 points in the first half before putting it on cruise control. Senior quarterback Tucker Gleason accounted for four touchdowns in the win, but it was the defense that was the real MVP for the Rockets, holding Akron to just 145 yards and 11 first downs in the game. Toledo now goes into their bye week with a 3-2 record.

Gametime odds: Toledo -21.5

Difference: 20.5 points

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