Ranking 10 potential first-time College Football Playoff teams
College football has always been a top-heavy sport, where only a few elite programs have a real shot at playing for the national championship.
Prior to last season, 20 of the 28 total playoff spots were taken by schools named Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame.
And until the College Football Playoff decides to expand, we'll still only see four teams in the format. Which is to say: until at least the 2026 season.
But last fall, we saw two first-timers make the final four: Cincinnati, the first Group of 5 team to make it, and traditional Big Ten powerhouse Michigan.
Talent is the name of the game, and if you have it, you can make the playoff, even if you never have until now. Who can make a run this season?
Teams that can crash the College Football Playoff
10. Houston
Where Houston was: 12-2 (8-0 AAC), No. 20 in CFP rankings, beat Auburn in Birmingham Bowl
Where Houston is: Some key inputs from last season's 12-win team are gone, but it retains quarterback Clayton Tune in addition to some decent perimeter speed and a solid protection unit up front. Running back Alton McCaskill's season is a question mark, though, after he tore an ACL this offseason.
Losses on defense may hurt, but in general this is a veteran team with plenty of experience most everywhere on the field. Houston needs to have a good result at Texas Tech early, and not having to play UCF or Cincinnati is a major plus.
With all the talent Cincinnati just lost to the NFL Draft, this could be the year the Cougars finally jostle up to the No. 1 spot in the AAC standings. And with selectors now open to ranking Group of 5 teams, anything is possible.
9. BYU
Where BYU was: 10-3, No. 13 in CFP rankings, lost to UAB in Independence Bowl
Where BYU is: Losing quarterback Zach Wilson last season wasn't quite as costly as many analysts thought. BYU still won 10 games behind the 17th best offense in college football that put up 462 yards per game and scored 53 touchdowns.
It was BYU's second-straight 10-win season, including six against Power 5 teams, going 5-0 against Pac-12 teams, and two of them ranked. Looking at this roster, it's not out of the picture that BYU can build on that resume and take it a step further.
There are two problems with that theory, though.
One, the departure of running back Tyler Allgeier, and two, the Cougars' schedule. Allgeier was a 1,600-yard rusher last fall and scored 43 percent of BYU's touchdowns. And this slate is tough, with games against Baylor, Oregon, Notre Dame, Arkansas, and Boise State. That stretch could propel BYU to the promised land, or throw it into a tailspin a year before going to the Big 12.
8. USC
Where USC was: 4-8 (3-6 Pac-12), unranked
Where USC is: It may be a long shot to put this team in the playoff hunt when the season hasn't even started yet, but when you look at the additions Lincoln Riley made in the transfer portal, you can see this team throwing some punches in the Pac-12.
Caleb Williams, the former No. 1 recruit in the nation, comes into the season on the Heisman short list, and the quarterback has a supporting cast with the speed and athleticism to make this potentially the best offense on the West Coast, a unit led by Biletnikoff winner Jordan Addison, who led college football with 17 receiving TDs a year ago.
That should carry this team through the very winnable first half of this schedule, but a road tilt at Utah midseason will tell more of the story.
Namely, how well can USC stop teams?
It couldn't last fall, ranking 89th in the nation in total defense, giving up almost five TDs per game to Pac-12 foes, and posted the league's overall second-worst scoring defense (31.8 ppg). Some fine tuning there, and the Trojans can easily emerge as a top 10 team come conference championship time.
7. Wisconsin
Where Wisconsin was: 9-4 (6-3 Big Ten), unranked
Where Wisconsin is: On a total yards basis, the Badgers actually finished last season with a better defense than Georgia's, but anemic quarterback play doomed Wisconsin to just one win in the first month and a late loss at Minnesota that finally bounced this team from the Big Ten West race.
There's still enough talent and depth on this defense to suffocate Big Ten opponents, especially with what looks like a very elite defensive line group. Running back Braelon Allen will steer this offense after a true freshman campaign in which he rushed for 1,268 yards and 12 touchdowns, and he's running behind a line made of solid rock.
There are tough road games at Ohio State, Michigan State, and Iowa, but the selection committee loves a quality schedule, and the right results in two of those three, and this can be a one-loss team coming into the Big Ten championship game with a playoff bid seemingly within reach.
6. Oklahoma State
Where Oklahoma State was: 12-2 (8-1 Big 12), No. 9 in CFP poll, Big 12 runner-up, beat Notre Dame in Fiesta Bowl
Where Oklahoma State is: The team with the No. 3 defense in college football a year ago was close to clinching a CFP bid, but came literally inches shy of a Big 12 title and playoff contention.
That defense may look a little different after Jim Knowles took the same gig at Ohio State, but Mike Gundy brought on Derek Mason from Auburn to fill the DC role. There are moves to make at linebacker and secondary, but plenty of talent in reserve, too.
The Cowboys have a winnable schedule, but with must-watch dates at Baylor and at Oklahoma that could sway things either way.
5. Miami
Where Miami was: 7-5 (5-3 ACC), unranked
Where Miami is: Just eight points separated the Canes from a perfect record in ACC games a year ago, and this team did beat a pair of the conference's best teams last fall (NC State and at eventual ACC champ Pittsburgh).
Miami has also made some serious inroads on the recruiting trail and have Tyler Van Dyke, the ACC's reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year, who could finish the most productive quarterback in the league in 2022.
That's a solid foundation for first-year coach Mario Cristobal, who has been aggressive in improving his support staff and is a proven program-builder following his Oregon tenure.
We'll know more about this team after a Week 3 trip to SEC West contender Texas A&M. A win there is rocket fuel for Miami's strength of schedule resume.
4. Utah
Where Utah was: 10-4 (8-1 Pac-12), No. 11 in CFP Top 25 poll, Pac-12 champion, lost to Ohio State in Rose Bowl
Where Utah is: Every offseason produces a trendy pick and this year, that honor is clearly going to Utah. The defending Pac-12 champs bring back its 1-2 punch on offense with quarterback Cameron Rising and lead back Tavion Thomas, and there's enough size and physicality on this line to keep them both upright.
But losing the likes of linebacker Devin Lloyd is enough to call the Utes' defensive unit into question, especially when also accounting for secondary losses.
Utah opens at Florida and has road games against UCLA and Oregon, in addition to a very interesting home tilt against a potentially resurgent USC. If any Pac-12 team can finally crack the College Football Playoff, the Utes are in the best position.
3. Wake Forest
Where Wake Forest was: 11-3 (7-1 ACC), No. 17 in CFP Top 25 poll, ACC runner-up, beat Rutgers in Gator Bowl
Where Wake Forest is: This team started out 8-0 last fall behind the No. 11 ranked offense nationally and the fourth-best scoring unit before finishing 2-3, including a loss to Pitt in the ACC title game.
Nine of those offensive starters are back, including quarterback Sam Hartman, a 4,200-yard passer with 39 touchdowns in 2021. But can first-year coordinator Brad Lambert repair a defense that ranked 91st in the nation last season?
The Deacs allowed 58 points to North Carolina, 42 from NC State, 48 to Clemson, and 45 to Pitt. They went 1-3 in that stretch. Trim down the worst of those numbers, and Wake can come into the ACC title race a solid top 10 team.
2. Baylor
Where Baylor was: 12-2 (7-2 Big 12), No. 7 in CFP Top 25 poll, Big 12 champion, beat Ole Miss in Sugar Bowl
Where Baylor is: Dave Aranda has some pretty impressive gains to protect this season after winning the Big 12 a year after winning two games. But he has a way to go before he and the Bears can get back there. Lead rusher Abram Smith is gone, leaving the backfield a work in progress, and the defensive back seven needs a pick-me-up.
But this team is still pretty great where it matters most: at quarterback and on a very solid defensive front line. And there's a schedule with plenty of opportunities to impress the CFP committee, including road dates at BYU, Iowa State, Oklahoma, and Texas.
1. Texas A&M
Where Texas A&M was: 8-4 (4-4 SEC), No. 25 in Coaches Top 25 Poll
Where Texas A&M is: Coming off signing arguably the best recruiting class in modern college football history. And a win over No. 1 Alabama last season that proved this team can hang with the best in the country.
But also with questions surrounding sluggish offensive showings in losses against LSU, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Mississippi State.
LSU transfer quarterback Max Johnson will compete with Haynes King for the starting gig, while Devon Achane holds down a solid backfield in addition to a very promising group of receivers.
Home games against App State and Miami come early in the season, and the Ags go to Alabama in October. The tail-end of this slate in murder, as you'd expect in the SEC West, but at least four of the last five come at home.
If the Aggies can punch their way through this slate, they deserve a spot in the College Football Playoff.
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