Alabama vs. Texas A&M preview, prediction: Week 6 college football picks

What to watch for as Alabama and Texas A&M square off on the Week 6 college football schedule

Author:
James Parks
Publish date:
Oct 8, 2022 5:29 PM EDT

Back in the preseason, the meeting between Alabama and Texas A&M seemed like the premier date on the Week 6 college football schedule, if not the top draw all year.

A&M was set to be the next big thing in the SEC West after that historic recruiting haul and was in position to give Nick Saban a nudge in the division.

But the Aggies' struggles since the start of the season, culminating in two losses through five games behind a surprisingly anemic offense, have taken some of the shine off the game.

Alabama, as expected, is perfect through five weeks, back in the No. 1 position in the top 25 rankings after Georgia's recent hiccups, and boasting the No. 4 total offense and scoring unit in the nation.

But don't let the slow starts fool you: A&M knocked off the No. 1 Tide a year ago at Kyle Field while itself unranked and at 3-2 coming in. As it is this week.

Here's what you need to know about this Saturday's matchup.

Alabama vs. Texas A&M preview, prediction

Alabama Crimson Tide college football team schedule, rankings — Week 6 college football: Alabama vs. Texas A&M

How to watch

When: Sat., Oct. 8

Time: 8 p.m. Eastern

TV: CBS network

Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

More college football on SI: College football scores | College football rankings | College football schedule

Odds, point spread, betting lines

Courtesy SI Sportsbook

Line: Alabama -24.5

Texas A&M ATS: 2-3

Alabama ATS: 4-1

O/U: 51.5

Moneyline: A&M +1400 BAMA -5000

FPI pick: Alabama 96.2%

Alabama vs. Texas A&M: What you need to know

College Football HQ turns to team experts in the SI Fannation network to provide in-depth coverage of Saturday's game

Christopher Walsh of Bama Central helps provide the keys to the matchup

Bama needs to get unpredictable. Alabama is going to do anything and everything it can to keep Texas A&M guessing about its offense, and not just due to Bryce Young's shoulder injury. When the reigning Heisman Trophy winner left the Arkansas game in the second quarter last week, the Crimson Tide turned to its ground game and eventually ran over the Razorbacks.

Jimbo Fisher will obviously have a good read on how much more Nick Saban might try and rely more on the running game, but that doesn't mean that the Aggies will be able to stop it for four quarters. The guess here is that Alabama is trying to rest Young as much as possible at practice this week, but he'll start and the Crimson Tide will mix things up more, including with a Jalen Milroe package. But no one knows, and Saban isn't about to tip his hand. — Christopher Walsh, Bama Central

"Hateful competitors." Fully aware that Alabama may have something special on defense, Saban has been pushing one button with this group in particular, to be relentless and not let up. Specifically with the Texas game, he talked about how Alabama used to have "hateful competitors on our team, and when they played on the road, they were mad at 100,000 people, not just the 11 guys they were playing against. They wanted to prove something to everybody."

He's not going to have to push any buttons this week because of the upset loss to Texas A&M last year. The hometown fans will be fired up for revenge, Young is playing hurt, and the unit is upset that it let Arkansas off the mat a bit last week. With a good defensive line, veteran secondary and an amazing pass-rush, Alabama has the potential to finish first nationally in all major team defensive categories. — Christopher Walsh

Waking up the Aggie offense. This unit isn't exactly churning out yards right now, averaging under 290 total in the two games it lost, and it struggled with turnovers last week, losing four to Mississippi State in a 42-24 loss, with three of them coming in the red zone. In total, the Aggies average 108th with just under 22 points per game, is 105th in total production, and 101st throwing the ball.

Now as Max Johnson deals with a likely season-ending injury in his hand, expect Haynes King to step in. He was benched after starting the first 2 games, including the loss to App State, and while he brings some mobility to the position, King is lacking at receiver after the injury to top target Ainias Smith. Devon Achane is a gifted versatile back, pass catcher, and specialist, but he can't do everything. — College Football HQ

Alabama vs. Texas A&M: Fast Facts

+ Devon Achane is 3rd in SEC with 93.20 rushing yards per game

+ Alabama is 1st nationally with 7.35 rushing yards per attempt and is 2nd with 251.4 rushing yards per game

+ A&M is 3rd in SEC with 5 forced fumbles, 1 in each game

+ Tide's offensive line is credited with allowing 5 sacks, but actual linemen have only allowed 2, or 1 for every 82 pass attempts

+ Aggies are 28-4 under Fisher when scoring first and 9-11 when not

+ Alabama averages 5.44 plays per scoring drive and 1:53 per possession

+ Achane is 1st in the Power 5 with 166.4 all-purpose yards per game

+ Tide has won 49 of the last 50 games when scoring a TD on its first drive, with the 1 loss coming last season at A&M

+ Aggies are 26-0 when leading after the first quarter and 6-13 when not under Fisher

+ Alabama is 2nd nationally in 3rd down defense (16 of 76, or 21.1%)

+ A&M is 30-2 when leading at the half under Fisher and 4-13 when trailing

+ Saban is 8-2 against Texas A&M at Alabama, losing the first game (2012) and the most recent (2021)

+ Aggies are 2-7 under Fisher against AP top 5 ranked teams

+ Alabama is 29-0 at home in October under Saban

Texas A&M vs. Alabama Prediction

The eyes of the college football world will be on the right shoulder of quarterback Bryce Young, especially with how close Alabama played Texas early and thinking back to Arkansas' frenzied comeback attempt.

A&M's defensive numbers may not pop off the page, and there are concerns about its ability to generate a consistent pass rush off the edges, but the unit held every opponent to 21 points or fewer until last week, and it will be the best coordinated secondary the Tide will throw against up to this point.

A&M's only shot is to clamp down on those passing lanes early enough to throw Alabama's air attack out of rhythm, and try to jostle Young in the pocket and reduce his big-play ability.

Because, other than 1 or 2 big runs from Achane, and maybe a return that puts the offense in scoring position, there isn't enough on the Aggies' side to credibly threaten the Crimson Tide's pursuit group near the line.

College Football HQ Prediction: Alabama 38, Texas A&M 16

College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

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