College football picks, predictions against the spread for Week 11 games
As the month turns to November, the college football schedule is starting to sort out the contenders from the pretenders as the conference and playoff races heat up.
LSU and Notre Dame may have sorted things out in a big way last week, defeating Alabama and Clemson, respectively, and apparently leaving both out of the College Football Playoff for the first time since the CFP came into existence.
Now with Saturday's games approaching, we'll see more matchups that should decide who ultimately gets in and who gets left out.
There are four games pitting ranked teams in head-to-head matchups, including one big game out of the SEC featuring Alabama and Ole Miss, and an intriguing AAC tilt that puts Tulane's first place standing on the line against upstart UCF.
Here's your look at our predictions against the spread for the top Week 11 matchups.
College football Week 11 picks against the spread
ATS college football picks for Week 11
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Games lines are courtesy of SI Sportsbook and rankings reflect College Football Playoff poll
No. 7 LSU (-3) at Arkansas. Two dynamic quarterbacks square off as LSU looks to avoid the trap after knocking off Alabama and goes against a Hogs team that just lost at home to Liberty. Arkansas can move the ball on the ground, but isn't strong in the back seven and could struggle trying to contain Jayden Daniels. LSU is still pretty average among SEC teams in most categories and this is only its third true road game this year. ATS pick: LSU wins by 9, covers
Louisville at No. 10 Clemson (-7). Malik Cunningham and company have won four straight games and boast a rout over Wake Forest in which the Cardinals forced eight takeaways. Clemson should be a little more cautious with the ball, but the improvement by this unit under DJ Uiagalelei's management has been tenuous at best and finally evaporated at Notre Dame. It's just tough to beat Clemson in their place. ATS pick: Clemson by 10, covers
Maryland at No. 14 Penn State (-10.5). Wisconsin showed the blueprint for slowing down Taulia Tagovailoa and the Terps' productive offense by locking down his targets and throwing his timing off. Penn State has the capacity to do that and more besides with a balanced offense. ATS pick: Penn State by 13, covers
Nebraska at No. 3 Michigan (-29.5). The books pegged Michigan as 20-point or more favorites in the last three weeks and the team is 1-2 ATS in those games. Michigan might be the most complete team in the Big Ten and should run with ease over the Huskers front pursuit group. ATS pick: Michigan by 27, doesn't cover
No. 9 Alabama (-11.5) at No. 11 Ole Miss. Bama is likely out of the College Football Playoff race with two losses, but there's still the slimmest of chances to make it to Atlanta, provided it wins plus some chaos elsewhere. Saban's team hasn't fared well on the road behind some iffy receiver play and shaky pass protection. Ole Miss can run, but the Tide can stop it, and the Rebs aren't quite there yet throwing the ball when they have to, and they'll likely have to. ATS pick: Alabama by 11, doesn't cover
No. 22 UCF at No. 17 Tulane (-2). The battle for first place in the AAC and the winner moving closer to playing in a good New Year's bowl. UCF has taken the last four in this series, but the Wave is 8-1 against the spread. ATS pick: Tulane by 3, covers
No. 24 Washington at No. 6 Oregon (-13.5). Michael Penix has revived the Huskies' offense and is tailor-made for Kalen DeBoer's scheme, but the Ducks have won eight straight since the opener, scoring over 40 points each time out, and Bo Nix is finally realizing his potential after getting out of Auburn, throwing for 22 TDs and running for 13. Oregon is 7-1 against the spread and dominant at home. ATS pick: Oregon by 14, covers
No. 4 TCU at No. 18 Texas (-7). It's not just the College Football Playoff that's being cautious about the Frogs; so are the bookmakers. Those slow first-half starts are something to take into consideration, but Max Duggan leads a cadre of playmakers that can recover in a hurry. TCU is 7-1-1 against the spread and has won six of the last eight against UT in the playoff era. ATS pick: TCU by 7, upsets
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Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State (-40). That's a lot of points for a conference game, even considering OSU's potent offense and the Hoosiers' general malaise, but the Buckeyes are 0-3 against the spread when favored by 35 or more. ATS pick: Ohio State by 31, doesn't cover
Missouri at No. 5 Tennessee (-21). Mizzou is 4-0 against the spread as an underdog and played Georgia, UK, and Florida by 7 or fewer in those games. And the Vols are coming off an ugly loss at Georgia, which could take the air out of their balloon, or inspire them to come back strong. We're betting on the latter. ATS pick: Tennessee by 25, covers
No. 1 Georgia (-16.5) at Mississippi State. Mike Leach hasn't lost at home, but he hasn't played the likes of Georgia's smothering defense yet, either. ATS pick: Georgia by 20, covers
No. 15 North Carolina at Wake Forest (-3.5). Drake Maye and the Tar Heels boast the ACC's top scoring offense, but this series has seen both teams combine for 225 points the last two outings in close games where defense was optional. ATS pick: North Carolina by 6, upsets
Colorado at No. 8 USC (-34.5). Watching this Trojan defense has been a chore in recent weeks as it's kept these games closer than they should be with an offense this talented. Colorado shouldn't pose too great a threat, though, placing last in the Pac-12 in both offense and defense. Still, USC is 1-3 against the spread when it's more than 14. ATS pick: USC by 29, doesn't cover
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