Kansas vs. Iowa State odds, spread, lines: Week 5 college football picks, predictions by computer model

Expert picks, predictions for Kansas vs. Iowa State on the Week 5 college football schedule

Author:
James Parks
Publish date:
Oct 1, 2022 1:05 AM EDT

Don't look now, but Kansas is pretty good at football again, and hosts Big 12 rival Iowa State in college football's Week 5 action on Saturday.

Kansas is undefeated through four games for the first time since 2009 as it welcomes the Cyclones, 3-1 after a close loss to 17th ranked Baylor.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Kansas vs. Iowa State odds, spread, predictions

Kansas Jayhawks college football team schedule, rankings — Week 5 college football picks: Kansas vs. Iowa State

Despite the Jayhawks' success up to now, the index is siding with the visitors this week, as Iowa State has the 61.3 percent chance to defeat Kansas.

That leaves KU the 38.7 percent shot to beat Iowa State at home and stay perfect.

Oddsmakers tend to agree, as the Cyclones come into the game as 3.5 point favorites, according to the line at SI Sportsbook, which set the over/under mark at 57.5 points for the matchup.

Kansas checks in at No. 55 on the index's 131 college football rankings this week, a drop of 3 spots despite the team's statement win over Duke.

As a predictive model rather than a straightforward power ranking, the FPI isn't confident the Jayhawks can sustain their early season success, estimating the team will win 6.2 games this year with a 71.0 percent chance of becoming bowl eligible.

KU is expected to be 3.1 points better on average than the teams on its schedule, according to the computer.

AP top 25 voters kept Kansas out of the poll this week, but only just: KU placed No. 26 when adding up all the votes, just behind in-state rival Kansas State, which earned the No. 25 ranking after beating Oklahoma.

Iowa State came in at No. 25 on the national FPI index, an improvement of 2 spots despite last week's loss, and is expected to win 7.0 games this season.

FPI projects the Cyclones will be 9.6 points better than its opponents on average week to week and has an 86.3 percent chance to play in a bowl.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

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College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

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