1-Win College Football Program Named Most Likely To Improve in 2026

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have struggled over the past two seasons, posting a combined 4-20 record and failing to win a Big 12 conference game. That stretch marked one of the most difficult periods in program history and led to a major change.

The program parted ways with longtime head coach Mike Gundy, who spent 21 seasons leading the Cowboys. Gundy compiled a 170-90 record and remains the winningest coach in program history. He guided Oklahoma State to a Big 12 championship in 2011 and elevated the program to national relevance. However, recent results ultimately led to the decision to move in a different direction.

Oklahoma State turned to Eric Morris, one of the more sought-after coaching candidates in the most recent hiring cycle. Morris spent the past three seasons at North Texas Mean Green, where he posted a 22-16 record.

His tenure showed steady improvement, culminating in a breakthrough season in 2025. That year, North Texas went 11-2 and narrowly missed a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Drew Mestemaker (17) runs drills during Oklahoma State football practice. | NATHAN J. FISH/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A major reason for that success was quarterback Drew Mestemaker. The redshirt freshman threw for 4,379 yards with 34 touchdowns and nine interceptions while completing 68.9% of his passes. He led the nation in passing yards and finished tied for second in touchdown passes. His production established him as one of the most dynamic young quarterbacks in the country.

Running back Caleb Hawkins also delivered a standout season, rushing for 1,434 yards and 25 touchdowns as a freshman. The combination of elite quarterback play and a productive ground game fueled the North Texas offensive success. Both players followed Morris to Stillwater, providing an immediate foundation for the Cowboys’ offense.

That foundation is one reason Bill Connelly of ESPN projects Oklahoma State as the most improved team among those with a new head coach entering 2026.

"Again, I won't be applying an Eric Morris Bump to the numbers even though he ranks 14th on the list above," Connelly wrote. "But Oklahoma State underachieved against its historic baseline to an almost unfathomable degree last year, and any coaching change was likely to bring with it a solid boost. OSU's average SP+ ranking was a solid 28.6 over the previous 20 years before Pokes collapsed to 121st."

Connelly noted that Oklahoma State’s average SP+ ranking over the previous 20 years was 28.6 before dropping to 121st last season, highlighting the extent of the decline.

That gap between historical performance and recent results suggests significant room for improvement. If Mestemaker and Hawkins can replicate their production, Oklahoma State’s offense could take a major step forward.

The question is not whether the Cowboys will improve, but how quickly that improvement will translate into wins. With a proven offensive system and experienced playmakers, Oklahoma State could move beyond competing for bowl eligibility and re-enter the Big 12 race.