$2 Million College Football QB Predicted to Have Stock Skyrocket Next Season

The annual meeting between Texas and Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry dates to 1900 and has been played at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas since the 1930s during the State Fair, making it one of college football’s longest-running neutral-site showdowns.

The series has long served as a marquee midseason measuring stick for both programs, and last year’s edition was no exception.

On Oct. 11, 2025, the Longhorns beat the Sooners 23–6 as Texas’ special teams and defense swung the game, highlighted by a 75-yard punt return touchdown early in the fourth quarter that pushed the margin to two scores.

Texas quarterback Arch Manning delivered an efficient performance, completing 21 of 27 passes for 166 yards and the go-ahead touchdown. Oklahoma, meanwhile, was limited to 258 total yards. John Mateer, returning from recent hand surgery, finished 20 of 38 with three interceptions and no touchdowns, adding little production on the ground.

Despite the disappointing showing, On3’s J.D. PicKell and Kaiden Smith still identified Mateer as a high-upside signal-caller entering the 2026 season.

"To me, John Mateer, if the thumb was really the issue, it was the issue obviously, but down the stretch of the season, he didn't look like himself," Smith said. "I think if he looks like himself for an entire year, like he did in the beginning of last season and that Michigan game is what we see weekly from this guy, I think he'll easily be a top five quarterback."

Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer. — Oklahoma's John Mateer (10) reacts following a College Football Playoff game | SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Mateer was a multi-sport standout at Little Elm High School (Little Elm, Texas), rated a three-star recruit and the No. 119 quarterback in the 2022 class by 247Sports. As a lightly recruited prospect, he received only a handful of FBS offers, ultimately committing to Washington State over Central Arkansas, New Mexico State, Columbia, Houston Christian, and Incarnate Word.

After spending two seasons as a backup in Pullman, Mateer broke out in 2024. He threw for 3,139 yards with 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions while adding 826 rushing yards and 15 rushing scores, earning recognition as one of the Pac-12’s top offensive performers before transferring to Oklahoma ahead of the 2025 season.

In his first year leading the Sooners in 2025, Mateer saw modest regression from his breakout campaign, completing 247 of 397 passes (62.2%) for 2,885 yards, 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He also rushed for 431 yards and eight scores across 12 games.

The season began with promise, as Mateer opened with a 392-yard performance against Illinois State and followed it up with a strong outing against Michigan, throwing for 270 yards and a touchdown while adding 72 rushing yards and two more scores on the ground.

However, a right thumb injury that required surgery in late September altered his trajectory, missing the Oct. 4 matchup against Kent State, and although he returned soon after, he never fully regained the rhythm and explosiveness he showed early in the season.

Despite the uneven finish, Mateer remains one of college football’s more marketable quarterbacks, carrying an NIL valuation of roughly $2 million. More importantly, he is still viewed as one of the nation’s most dynamic dual-threat players, and Oklahoma’s top-10 defense could provide the complementary support needed for a rebound season.

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