4 Group of Six Schools Who Can Make A College Football Playoff Run in 2026

While marquee matchups and historic rivalries often headline the college football season, it’s the rise of an unexpected contender that truly captures the heart of the sport, especially when the College Football Playoff stage is being set.

With NIL continuing to reshape college football, programs outside the traditional power structure, especially those in the Group of Six, are gaining real traction.

That added financial flexibility is opening the door for these teams to compete at a higher level, positioning them to make legitimate noise during the season and potentially crash the CFB Playoff as a lower seed.

Here are four programs that have the potential to emerge as true underdogs and make a statement during the 2026 college football season.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Opening the list is a program trending firmly in the right direction: the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, a legitimate contender in the Mountain West heading into 2026. Under head coach Timmy Chang, Hawaii has leaned into its identity, powered by dynamic quarterback Micah Alejado.

Group of Six odds to win the 2026 Heisman Trophy, per @DKSportsbook:

Micah Alejado, Hawaii +30000
Maddux Madsen, Boise State +40000
Jackson Arnold, UNLV +40000 pic.twitter.com/msA1HVT4vY
— Oliver Hodgkinson (@hodgkinsonsport) February 19, 2026

Alejado’s command of a run-and-gun attack sparked a noticeable offensive surge last season, helping elevate the Rainbow Warriors into one of the conference’s more dangerous units. That momentum translated into results, as Hawaii capped off a 9-4 campaign with a statement win in the Hawaii Bowl, signaling a program on the rise.

Coach Timmy Chang kept the momentum rolling this offseason, headlined by retaining standout receiver Pofele Ashlock amid transfer portal interest. He also added two explosive weapons to the offense in WR Tre Griffiths and RB DeVon Rice, further boosting the unit’s speed and big-play potential.

On the defensive side, continuity remains a major strength. The Rainbow Warriors return over 80% of their starters from last season while also bolstering the secondary with the addition of cornerback Jeremiah Hughes, giving Hawaii a more complete and balanced roster heading into 2026.

Marshall Thundering Herd

After a disappointing 2025 campaign, Marshall turned the page this offseason, retooling the roster with an influx of new talent under head coach Tony Gibson, bringing in over 40 transfers and recruits.

Another major boost for the Thundering Herd came with the return of starting quarterback Carlos Del-Rio Wilson, who secured an NCAA waiver to play out his final collegiate season. The dual-threat gunslinger now steps back in with a chance to not only help spark a turnaround in Huntington but also create some NFL draft stock in the process.

Defensively, Tony Gibson faces a major challenge after the Thundering Herd surrendered 30.2 points per game a season ago.

Known for his defensive pedigree, Gibson enters year two looking to tighten things up, hoping his system begins to take hold and reshape Marshall’s identity on that side of the ball.

San Diego State Aztecs

Stepping into a reconstructed Pac-12 Conference, the San Diego State Aztecs head into the 2026 season with a sense of unfinished business. Last year’s momentum was cut short by a late-season injury to quarterback Jayden Denegal, leaving plenty of “what if” surrounding a team that looked ready to make a potential push.

The Aztecs will bring back the core of their explosive backfield, with quarterback Jayden Denegal and running back Lucky Sutton both set to return for their senior seasons, giving San Diego State continuity and proven production heading into 2026.

San Diego State RB Lucky Sutton (@KingSutton7) was a dude I seemingly kept making a cutup on every week.

The hometown kid made 1st Team All-MWC after rushing for 1,297 yards and 10 TDs on the year.

Sutton is a bulldozer, and when those wheels get churning, he’s hard to stop.… pic.twitter.com/x3xJ2gYMz0
— Bryan (@RealBGauvin23) February 5, 2026

Defensively, Sean Lewis faces a transition year as he works to replace key departures, including soon-to-be NFL cornerback Chris Johnson and transfer edge rusher Trey White. Still, with a revamped coaching staff and a wave of hungry newcomers looking to carve out roles, the Aztecs have the pieces in place to reload quickly.

As San Diego State Aztecs usher in a new era in the Pac-12 Conference, expectations won’t be modest. The Aztecs are hopeful in making an immediate statement, competing for the conference crown in year one while positioning themselves for a legitimate run at the College Football Playoff.

UNLV Rebels

Now entering year two under Dan Mullen, UNLV football is beginning to look like a legitimate force in what shapes up to be a wide-open Mountain West Conference race in 2026.

With reigning conference Player of the Year Anthony Colandrea leading the charge offensively, the Rebels have their offensive battery.

If the pieces fall into place, the Rebels could quickly rise into one of college football’s most compelling playoff threats. It’s a stage Dan Mullen is more than familiar with, and he won’t be navigating it alone.

With a staff packed with big-game experience, the Rebels have the leadership and composure needed to handle the pressure moments and make a legitimate run.