6 College Football Teams Most Likely to Make Their CFP Debut in 2026

The College Football Playoff welcomed six newcomers for the second consecutive season in 2025.

The Miami Hurricanes, James Madison Dukes, Ole Miss Rebels, Texas Tech Red Raiders, Texas A&M Aggies and Tulane Green Wave made their first foray into the championship tournament. Miami advanced to the CFP National Championship game before falling to the Indiana Hoosiers. Ole Miss made it to the semifinals before bowing to the Hurricanes.

In 2024, the first year of the 12-team playoff format, the Arizona State Sun Devils, Boise State Broncos, Indiana, Penn State Nittany Lions, SMU Mustangs and Tennessee Volunteers earned their way to the CFP for the first time.

So which teams will it be in 2026?

Well, it's unlikely that a pair of Group of Five (now Group of Six with the return of the Pac-12) teams will qualify again. Tulane and James Madison got in last season because the ACC champion, the Duke Blue Devils, was not among the top-five ranked conference champions.

The CFP format has changed slightly for 2026 to award automatic bids to every Power Four conference champion, regardless of ranking. The Group of Six automatic bid will go to the highest-ranked team, no matter if it is a conference champion or not.

Here are six teams, listed in alphabetical order, most likely to crack the CFP code for the first time this season.

BYU Cougars

Head coach Kalani Sitake's team finished No. 12 in the final 2025 CFP rankings, right behind Miami at No. 10 and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 11. Two ugly losses to Texas Tech, one of them in the Big 12 title game, kept BYU out of the CFP.

Quarterback Bear Bachmeier returns after throwing for 3,033 yards and 15 touchdowns and rushing for 527 yards and 11 more scores. Running back LJ Martin is back, too, after winning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year by rushing for 1,305 yards and 12 TDs.

The transfer portal delivered promising linebacker Cade Uluave from the Cal Golden Bears. The best news for the Cougars? They don't play Texas Tech during the regular season. Plus, Notre Dame visits Provo, Utah.

Florida Gators

It's difficult to project an SEC team to make a CFP breakthrough because there are so many playoff stalwarts at the top of the conference. Surprisingly, Florida is not among them. Yet. New head coach Jon Sumrall led Tulane to the promised land in 2025.

He will have On3's No. 9-ranked transfer portal class and its No. 13-ranked recruiting class. Former Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner attracted ex-Jackets in wide receiver Eric Singleton Jr. and quarterback Aaron Philo to join an impressive skill-position group. Jadan Baugh rushed for 1,170 yards, and receivers Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III are explosive.

A tough three-game stretch at Texas, Georgia in Jacksonville and home for Oklahoma is likely to decide the Gators' playoff fate.

Houston Cougars

The Cougars are coming off their second 10-win season since 2015 and return some key contributors for head coach Willie Fritz as he begins his third year. Quarterback Conner Weigman and wide receiver Amare Thomas were a lethal combination.

Weigman threw for 2,705 and 25 touchdowns, while Thomas caught 67 passes for 966 yards and 12 scores. Khalil Laufau is back for his senior season to anchor the defensive line. Houston attracted the No. 8 transfer portal class, per On3, led by running back Makhi Hughes. Hughes starred at Tulane but never found his footing after transferring to Oregon last season.

The schedule is favorable, though the Cougars must travel to Texas Tech for the Big 12 opener. Houston does not play BYU, however.

Lousville Cardinals

Louisville Cardinals RB Isaac Brown — Louisville Cardinals running back Isaac Brown (1) runs the ball for a touchdown against the Virginia Tech Hokies. | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

Head coach Jeff Brohm's team has been knocking on the door for each of his three seasons. Last year, the Cardinals defeated CFP teams Miami and James Madison but dropped one game in overtime and two others by a field goal or less.

This could be the year Louisville knocks down the door. The Cardinals own the No. 5 transfer portal, per On3, headlined by Ohio State Buckeyes transfer Lincoln Kienholz at quarterback and wide receiver Tre Richardson from Vanderbilt. The running back duo of Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown rushed for 8.8 and 7.3 yards per carry, respectively.

Clev Lubin is back on the defensive line after recording 8.5 sacks. The Cardinals don't face ACC favorite Miami, but they have challenging non-conference battles against Ole Miss (neutral site) and SMU (home).

UNLV Rebels

UNLV head coach Dan Mullen — UNLV Rebels head coach Dan Mullen argues a call during a game against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. | Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

UNLV is our only Group of Six CFP newcomer. The Rebels remain in the Mountain West, which lost five schools, including the reigning champion Boise State Broncos, to the Pac-12 and added three programs. UNLV won't be sad to see the Broncos go; Boise State defeated the Rebels in the past three Mountain West title games, and they weren't particularly close.

Meanwhile, UNLV is ready to roll under former Florida head coach Dan Mullen, who won 10 games in his first season. Mullen hopes he can rehabilitate quarterback Jackson Arnold. The former five-star recruit has yet to live up to expectations at Auburn or Oklahoma. Running back Jai-Den "Jet" Thomas returns after rushing for 1,036 yards last year.

USC Trojans

It's hard to believe USC hasn't appeared in the CFP during its 12 years of existence. It's probably this year or never for head coach Lincoln Riley, who hasn't matched the 11 wins he racked up in his first season. The stars are aligned. USC returns quarterback Jayden Maiava (3,711 passing yards, 24 TDs), running back King Miller (972 rushing yards, eight TDs) and all five starting offensive linemen.

Oh, and the Trojans welcome On3's No. 1 recruiting class, which features five stars Luke Wafle (EDGE) and Mark Bowman (tight end). USC gets Oregon, Washington and Ohio State at home and Indiana on the road. If the Trojans can win at least two of those and take care of business elsewhere, they might just make that first CFP appearance.