5 College Football Teams On Upset Alert In Week 4

Week 3 of the 2026 college football season delivered more chaos.

Five teams in the AP top-25 poll were defeated, including Texas A&M and Virginia, who both lost to unranked opponents. Kentucky's upset of the Aggies in College Station was the surprise of the weekend, as the Wildcats dominated in a 31-21 win.

Elsewhere, Miami, Alabama, USC, and Missouri struggled to create separation from overmatched opponents.

Who needs to stay on their toes in Week 4?

*All odds via FanDuel

No. 1 Texas Longhorns

Sep 12, 2026; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian looks on before the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Spread: TEXAS -4.5

Texas takes its top spot in the rankings and undefeated record into Knoxville on Saturday. The Longhorns dealt with a bit of a hangover effect after beating Ohio State in a thriller. Last week, they only defeated UTSA 30-6, with Arch Manning completing just 16/32 passes for 161 yards.

The Longhorns can't afford a similar showing in their first game outside of Austin. Tennessee is off to a 3-0 start and has handled all three of its opponents. Former five-star recruit and freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon is ahead of schedule. He's completed 64.1% of his passes for 552 yards with 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, with another 137 yards and 3 scores on the ground.

This will be the biggest outing in Brandon's early career. At the same time, Manning is pretty inconsistent, and you never know what you're going to get from him. Even in the Ohio State win, he didn't really come alive until the fourth quarter, and Texas can't always rely on second-half heroics. The Longhorns need to start fast to quiet the crowd down.

Can Texas keep the magic going?

No. 4 Ole Miss Rebels

Sep 19, 2026; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (6) looks for an open receiver during the second quarter against the LSU Tigers at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Spread: UF -3.5

Florida is technically favored in this game, but Ole Miss holds a significant edge in the rankings. Even Jon Sumrall questioned what the oddsmakers in Vegas were thinking. After all, the Rebels have already taken down two ranked opponents, and are coming off a cathartic 32-24 victory against a top-10 LSU team.

There's potential for a shootout in Gainesville. The Gators have one of the best rushing offenses in the nation, averaging 246 yards on the ground per game behind star running back Jadan Baugh. Meanwhile, Heisman contender Trinidad Chambliss is looking even better than last year for the Rebels.

One thing to watch for the Rebels is the status of running back Kewan Lacy. The First-Team All-American is considered doubtful, which would be a significant blow for Ole Miss.

Sumrall has the Gators out to a 3-0 start and is used to punching above his weight. No matter who comes out on top, it should be a fun matchup in The Swamp.

No. 12 USC Trojans

Spread: ORE -3.5

USC keeps playing with fire, and the Trojans might finally get burned in Week 4. Lincoln Riley's squad barely survived a road game against one of the worst teams in the FBS, beating Rutgers 42-35. The Scarlet Knights kept the contest within one possession for most of the second half.

There's no doubt that the offense is exciting. Star quarterback Jayden Maiava is leading the country in passing yards and passing touchdowns. However, the defense has given up 26+ points in 3 of 4 games, including 30+ points in back-to-back outings. USC's opponents in those games were Louisiana and Rutgers.

Oregon would probably be favored by more if the Ducks hadn't slipped up at Oklahoma State. Despite the early season struggles, Dan Lanning's program is as good as any in the country.

The Ducks might win this one by multiple scores.

No. 19 Missouri

Sep 19, 2026; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Missouri Tigers head coach Eli Drinkwitz reacts to a call against the Troy Trojans during the first half of the game at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Spread: MSU -5.5

This feels like a matchup between two teams trending in opposite directions, but stranger things have happened. Mississippi State has already matched its win total from 2025, and won back-to-back road games at Minnesota and South Carolina. Meanwhile, Missouri didn't look great in victories over Kansas and Troy.

Bulldogs' sophomore quarterback Kamario Taylor is quickly becoming a national name, completing 56/82 passes for 832 yards with 11 touchdowns to 1 interception. He's added 178 rushing yards and another score. Jeff Lebby appears to have the program in a solid spot.

Missouri's offense was an absolute mess against Troy. The Tigers scored 24 of their 27 points in the second quarter, and didn't put any more points on the board until the final frame. The Trojans even led 10-0 at one point.

Mississippi State will be too much to handle if the Tigers don't play a consistent four quarters.

West Virginia Mountaineers

Sep 19, 2026; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. (3) runs the ball during the third quarter against the Virginia Cavaliers at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Spread: WVU -1.5

West Virginia is on the cusp of breaking into the top-25 for the first time since 2018. The Mountaineers pulled off a shocker in Charlotte, defeating a ranked Virginia squad 38-27, and holding the Cavaliers to 13 points over the final three quarters.

With the non-conference schedule complete, West Virginia turns its attention to the Big 12 opener against Oklahoma State. A slim favorite, quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. will need all of his dual-threat ability to beat the Cowboys.

Just two weeks ago, Oklahoma State upset No. 6 Oregon 39-31. The Cowboys followed that up with a 59-0 victory against Murray State. The season-opening loss to Tulsa looks well behind them.

Don't be surprised if quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who loves being the underdog, delivers another victory for Oklahoma State.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change

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