ACC faces path of missing College Football Playoff entirely

The ACC had a tough season and if Duke wins the ACC title game, it's going to get rougher. A Duke win over Virginia would most likely eliminate the ACC entirely from the College Football Playoff. While that's great news for a group of five team that would otherwise miss the Playoff, it's a bad break for the ACC and is bound to leave plenty of casual fans confused.

Understanding the CFP

The College Football Playoff's selection criteria is often misstated as the champion of the four power leagues (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC) and the top ranked Group of Five champion ahead of at-large picks. But that's not quite it. The criteria is actually the top five ranked league champions. While that will usually be the four power champions and a G5 team, it's not guaranteed that way.

The ACC's Duke problem

If 7-5 Duke takes down Virginia, an 8-5 Blue Devil team would not be one of the top five ranked league champions. Sun Belt champion James Madison and AAC champion North Texas or Tulane are two teams that would almost certainly outflank the Blue Devils-- and thus earn the CFP automatic spot. Matt Baker of The Athletic notes that the Mountain West champion could even earn a spot over Duke.

If that happens, it's entirely plausible that the ACC is out in the cold. A three-loss Virginia team wouldn't seem to attractive as an at-large pick. Miami is the top-ranked ACC team, but ESPN's most recent FPI rankings gave the Hurricanes a 10.1% CFP chance.

McAfee Show Saw it Coming

Nearly three weeks ago, the Pat McAfee Show contemplated this exact scenario-- and even used Duke as the example of a potential ACC champion who could get bested by two G5 teams.

"They brought it up on the show last night..

There's a minute possibility that Miami could make it as an at large and the ACC Champion could be left at home" ~ @StanfordSteve82 #PMSLive pic.twitter.com/TNKsKKrn7Q
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) November 12, 2025

Miami's Problem

At the time, the topic was that Miami might be the lone ACC team to make the Playoff. But in retrospect, a pair of losses to Louisville and SMU may well leave the Hurricanes outside the CFP field as well. Miami's Week 1 win over Notre Dame is probably the Hurricane's best CFP chip to cash. But 10-2 Notre Dame has probably eclipsed the Hurricanes by winning their final 10 games of the regular season. BYU and Alabama are two of the other teams that could be competing for the last at-large bid or bids.

The Path of ACC Deliverance?

Of course, all of this can still be academic if Virginia takes care of business. The Cavaliers would claim an automatic bid, eliminate the second G5 team (probably James Madison), and keep the ACC from being shutout. But in an ACC season where anything seems possible, it's certainly understandable if the college football world is contemplating all scenarios.