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Alabama's College Football Playoff chances revealed amid Auburn game

Will Alabama make the College Football Playoff? Let's dive into Alabama's odds to make the CFP bracket with a win or loss to Auburn.
Jonathan Adams|
Nov 22, 2025; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson (15) takes the field before a game against the Eastern Illinois Panthers at Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Leong-Imagn Images
Nov 22, 2025; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson (15) takes the field before a game against the Eastern Illinois Panthers at Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Leong-Imagn Images | David Leong-Imagn Images

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Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama is in the hunt to make the College Football Playoff, but the Crimson Tide are not a lock to make the postseason heading into the team's rivalry showdown against Auburn. Going into the Iron Bowl, Alabama sat at No. 10 in the College Football Playoff rankings.

A win versus Auburn gives the Crimson Tide a strong chance to make the postseason thanks to a trip to Atlanta for the SEC Championship. Bama losing to Auburn would very much put their postseason chances in peril with a third loss. Alabama would also be eliminated from SEC contention.

Prior to the Alabama-Auburn game, The Athletic gave Alabama a 61% chance to make the College Football Playoff and a 24% chance to win the SEC.

Alabama's chances to make the College Football Playoff with a win vs. Auburn

Heading into rivalry weekend, ESPN was a bit more bullish on Bama's postseason chances. ESPN's Playoff Predictor gave Alabama a 68% chance to make the College Football Playoff.

A win over Auburn but a loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship still gives the Crimson Tide an 82% chance to make the postseason, per ESPN. These numbers surge to 100% with a win over Auburn and a victory versus Georgia in the SEC title matchup. This scenario would give Bama a 69% chance to host a first-round playoff game.

Alabama's chances to make the College Football Playoff with a loss vs. Auburn

A loss at Auburn would greatly complicate Alabama's postseason fate. The loss would be Bama's third defeat of the season, a scenario that would all but officially eliminate the Crimson Tide from postseason contention.

ESPN projects Alabama's chances to make the College Football Playoff after a loss to Auburn would drop to just 6%. In other words, a loss versus Auburn means Alabama would have a 94% chance to miss the College Football Playoff.

"The debate will come if Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up," ESPN's Heather Dinich detailed on Nov. 25. "The Tide have played the ninth-hardest schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics, and their résumé would only be enhanced by facing a top-five opponent in the SEC championship game.

"A third loss, though, even in a close game to a top-five team, could drop Alabama into a dangerous spot in the top 12 where it might face elimination to make room for a guaranteed conference champion -- or a second Big 12 team."

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Jonathan Adams
JONATHAN ADAMS

Jonathan Adams is a veteran sports writer who has written for notable outlets and interviewed some of the top athletes for more than 10 years. Since 2015, his sports coverage has been read by tens of millions and has been prominently featured on Heavy, NFL.com, Yahoo Sports, Pro Football Talk, CBS Sports, Bleacher Report and more. Jonathan is a member of the Football Writers Association of America (FWAA) and a voter for the Maxwell Award and Eddie Robinson Coach of the Year. He has interviewed many of the biggest stars in sports — Bryce Harper, Jayden Daniels, Justin Jefferson, Bijan Robinson and Micah Parsons to name a few — and has traveled the country to cover the College Football Playoff, NFL draft, Masters, March Madness, Senior Bowl, McDonald’s All-American Game and beyond. Jonathan Adams studied at the University of Central Florida and The Seattle School of Theology & Psychology. He holds master degrees in sport business management, business administration and theology & culture.

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