Andy Staples Calls Out 'Insulting' Low Over/Under Win Total for Major SEC Program

Oklahoma Sooners head coach Brent Venables looks on. | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

The Oklahoma Sooners had an impressive bounce-back season in 2025 after finishing 6-7 in their first year in the SEC in 2024. The Sooners went 10-3 and made it back to the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2019.

The Sooners' defense led the team as head coach Brent Venables resumed play-calling duties. Venables is recognized as one of the top defensive minds in college football, having won three national championships as a coordinator at Clemson and Oklahoma.

His defense in 2025 was among the best in college football, which significantly contributed to the team’s successful season and a return to the CFP.

The Sooners rank No. 16 in the country in returning production for next season. Oklahoma returns 75% of its offensive production, which is No. 3 nationally. That includes quarterback John Mateer, who threw for 2,885 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions last season.

They also rank No. 57 in the country in defensive returning production at 55%. This has generated a lot of optimism for next year in Norman. However, their over/under is set at 7.5. That's something On3's Andy Staples called insulting on "The Paul Finebaum Show."

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) celebrates throwing a touchdown pass. | BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

"Oklahoma at 7.5 was completely insulting to the Sooners," Staples said. "I saw you mentioned Owen Heinecke is trying to get that extra year of eligibility. I don't know if he will... You look at Oklahoma, if you have a healthy John Mateer, which last year was a pretty fluky injury, if you got a healthy John Mateer for a whole year, if you develop any kind of running game, the defense is still going to be good. This is a team that's going to compete for another playoff berth."

Staples noted that Oklahoma has a challenging schedule for the upcoming season, which contributes to the 7.5-win prediction.

However, he suggested setting the over/under at around 8.5 wins. The Sooners will face tough opponents, including the Michigan Wolverines, Georgia Bulldogs, Florida Gators and Missouri Tigers, all on the road. This does not include the neutral-site game against the Texas Longhorns.

If the team can successfully manage their challenging games and maintain a strong home record, they could make it back to the College Football Playoff in 2026. This would be their first time to go to multiple CFPs in a row since they went to three consecutive playoffs from 2017 to 2019. This time, however, they hope to finish with a national championship trophy.