Big Ten College Football Playoff: Favorites, Contenders, Dreamers in Week 5

Heavy is the head that wears the crown, and with back-to-back College Football Playoff titles, the Big Ten is pretty heavy again in 2025. The current Playoff format seems to virtually assure the league of three teams, and some, including our own Alex Weber, in his take on the national scene, seem to take four for granted.

But here's a rundown on the Playoff-angling squads of the Big Ten, divided into favorites, contenders and dreamers.

Favorites

Oregon QB Dante Moore has the Ducks in excellent CFP position so far. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Oregon

The next two weeks will be a challenge for the Ducks, as they face No. 3 Penn State and host No. 11 Indiana. But the good news for them is that the only remaining ranked foe on the slate is No. 21 USC at home in late November. Even a split of the next two will keep Oregon safely on the CFP path. It's hard to imagine a worse mark than 10-2, which will keep them in.

Ohio State

Yes, the currently unbeaten and No. 1 Buckeyes stand to be in the CFP picture. The only three ranked foes left are No. 23 Illinois in Week 7, No. 3 Penn State at home on November 1, and, of course, No. 19 Michigan. There are not three losses on that schedule, and the Buckeyes would be fine and dandy at 10-2.

Penn State

Don't tell ESPN, as their FPI thinks both Indiana and USC are more likely picks, but until Penn State loses, here they sit, despite a claimed 38.8% CFP shot per FPI. Again, it's three ranked teams: No. 6 Oregon, No. 1 Ohio State, and No. 11 Indiana. 1-2 in those games will keep PSU in the Playoff picture, and 2-1 might win the Big Ten.

Contenders

Indiana and QB Fernando Mendoza have placed themselves in the thick of the CFP hunt-- for a second year in a row for the Hoosiers. | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Indiana

The question with the Hoosiers is whether they can avoid three losses. Oregon and Penn State both seem likely defeats, especially on the road. Can they otherwise run the schedule? Possibly. Iowa on Saturday is an excellent litmus test. The Hawkeyes style of play could cause a stumble, which would really hurt Indiana's chances.

USC

The Trojans have a great start, but that 4-0 could crumble with upcoming games against Illinois, Michigan, and Notre Dame in the next three weeks. If USC can win two of those three, they'll stay in the picture. If not, they'll fade away.

Michigan

The long shot of the group, the Wolverines, is still hanging around. The upside for Michigan is that the only remaining ranked opponents are USC in Week 7 and Ohio State to end the year. Would 9-3 be enough? Hard to say, but it's the sort of issue that keeps the Wolverines from sliding down a notch.

Dreamers

Demond Williams Jr. has helped Washington to a 3-0 start that fuels CFP dreams. | James Snook-Imagn Images

Washington

The 3-0 start seems too good to be true, but a schedule that includes only Michigan, Illinois, and Oregon as remaining ranked foes gives Washington a chance to make good. The Illini certainly looked beatable last week, which leaves plenty riding on the Michigan game in mid-October.

Nebraska

Only two ranked opponents remain, and USC hosts a game (although Penn State does not). Last week hurt. Beat Michigan, and the Huskers would have flipped those two teams around. But they're not finished, and taking care of business 4-0 in October would jump them back to the Contender level.