College Football Playoff bracket: What teams have clinched CFP spots?

The College Football Playoff teams are not guaranteed until the final CFP bracket is revealed on Sunday, but several programs are near locks to make the postseason. Unlike March Madness, winning the conference championship does not technically clinch a College Football Playoff spot.

Instead, the five highest ranked conference champions make the College Football Playoff. At least one CFP spot is guaranteed for the highest ranked Group of Six champion.

Typically, the SEC, ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten champions are locks to make the bracket. Duke winning the ACC opens up the door for two Group of Six teams to potentially make the postseason.

In this scenario, the ACC would be on the outside looking in at the CFP bracket while Tulane and James Madison are the favorites to make the postseason.

Let's explore what teams are expected to make the College Football Playoff as well as the programs on the bubble.

College Football Playoff teams: The programs who are locks to make the CFP bracket

Heading into the conference title games, eight teams had a 98% or greater chance of making the College Football Playoff, per The Athletic. The following teams make up this group of near locks to make the CFP, regardless of the results of the conference title games: Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia, Oregon, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Texas Tech and Oklahoma.

James Madison is going to the College Football Playoff! Duke helps the Dukes!

You didn't ask, but here is my bracket for tomorrow (I like Notre Dame more than the committee): pic.twitter.com/ks3ufAeohE
— Philip Rossman-Reich (@philiprr_OMD) December 7, 2025

Tulane's win over North Texas to secure the AAC title gives the Green Wave a greater than 99% chance to make the postseason. This leaves about three College Football Playoff spots truly up for grabs.

Georgia, Indiana and Texas Tech took care of business by winning their conference title games. Ohio State is still firmly in the postseason with their lone loss coming against Indiana in the Big Ten Championship.

Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oregon are projected to make the College Football Playoff as at-large teams.

College Football Playoff bubble teams: Alabama, Notre Dame and James Madison headline CFP bracket uncertainty

Prior to the SEC Championship, Alabama had a 79% chance to make the College Football Playoff. Bama's blowout loss to Georgia puts their postseason hopes in doubt, but the odds still favor the Crimson Tide.

Notre Dame did not play in a conference title game and has a 91% chance to make the postseason. BYU's loss in the Big 12 title game likely eliminates the Cougars.

Virginia had a 53% chance to make the College Football Playoff, but the loss to Duke opens up a scenario for the ACC to be left out. Duke has a less than 1% chance to make the CFP despite winning the conference title game.

James Madison had a 47% chance to crash the College Football Playoff after winning the Sun Belt but needed some help with a Duke upset over Virginia. JMU's odds have now surged following Duke's win over Virginia.

Texas, Vanderbilt and Miami are all likely to miss the College Football Playoff

The committee left the door open for Miami to jump Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff rankings, despite neither team playing in a conference title game. Miami defeated Notre Dame to start the season, but it still appears unlikely that the Canes will hop the Irish to make the CFP bracket. That is unless the committee has a last-minute change of heart.

Sources: No. 14 Vanderbilt explored the possibility of playing an exempt 13th game this weekend as a way to give one final showcase for the College Football Playoff. There was interest from the team, university officials, the athletic department and coaching staff. pic.twitter.com/Oo3ePXukdg
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) December 4, 2025

No. 13 Texas and No. 14 Vanderbilt have no more games to play. With the final two spots likely reserved for some combination of Group of Six champs or the ACC title winner, Vandy and Texas appear to have missed the postseason.