Predicting the College Football Playoff after Texas Tech beats BYU for the Big 12 title

Defense wins championships, they say. That was true of Texas Tech, whose dominant unit overwhelmed BYU behind two key takeaways to win the Big 12 Championship Game and book the Red Raiders a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.

Ben Roberts intercepted Bear Bachmeier twice, and the Texas Tech offense turned both into points to finally pull away from BYU and win its first-ever conference championship.

With the win, they’ll present a decisive case to the selection committee to stay within the top-four, especially given one of either No. 1 Ohio State or No. 2 Indiana will have to lose the Big Ten championship later today.

Where do things stand in the latest bracket projection? Let’s project what 12 teams will make the College Football Playoff, as of Texas Tech’s big win on Saturday.

Predicting the College Football Playoff bracket

Subject to change pending other Championship Week results

1. Ohio State. We project the Buckeyes will stay perfect by narrowly defeating Indiana to win the Big Ten championship and secure the top overall seed in the playoff.

2. Georgia. Our current expectation is that the Bulldogs will avenge their regular season loss to Alabama and win their second-straight SEC championship.

3. Texas Tech. One of college football’s best defenses left no doubt as to its reputation after swarming BYU to win the Big 12 championship, securing a first-round bye.

4. Indiana. Although we think the Hoosiers will lose the Big Ten title game, it won’t be by much, and they have the overall resume to stay within the top four.

5. Oregon. The one-loss Ducks will stay in the top-five, parked behind the Indiana squad that gave them that defeat earlier this season.

6. Ole Miss. The committee signaled that Lane Kiffin’s exit hasn’t affected the Rebels so far, so it’s likely they’ll stay at 6 when the final bracket is unveiled.

7. Texas A&M. That loss to Texas in the finale deprived the Aggies of a shot at the SEC championship, but the rest of their combined achievements should ensure they won’t have fallen far enough to not host a game in the first round.

8. Oklahoma. One of the nation’s toughest defenses put the Sooners back in playoff contention with a late-season push, but we’ll see how well John Mateer and this offense is able to navigate once the postseason starts.

9. Notre Dame. We expect Alabama loses the SEC championship, allowing the Irish room to move up by one spot.

10. Alabama. Here is where we could see some controversy. There’s a chance the committee keeps the Tide in the bracket if they lose close against Georgia, especially after the selectors jumped Bama over the Irish in the last poll, signaling real confidence in them, win or lose.

But watch for Miami, which will move up in the rankings after BYU’s loss, and there’s a very good case that the Hurricanes deserve it more. Miami would have one fewer loss than Alabama, and that head-to-head win over Notre Dame, too. What do we think? If Georgia beats Alabama, Miami deserves it. The committee may think otherwise, using whatever argument they pick that day.

11. Virginia. James Madison fans are rooting against the Hoos in the ACC championship, because if Virginia loses to Duke, that could pave the way for the selectors to add a second Group of Five team, with JMU ready to take advantage. We still think Virginia beats Duke, though.

12. Tulane. A dominant defensive performance allowed the Green Wave to take out North Texas and win the American championship, and likely entrench their position as the highest-ranked Group of Five team.

What the College Football Playoff bracket would look like

12 Tulane at 5 Oregon
Winner plays 4 Indiana

11 Virginia at 6 Ole Miss
Winner plays 3 Texas Tech

10 Alabama at 7 Texas A&M
Winner plays 2 Georgia

9 Notre Dame at 8 Oklahoma
Winner plays 1 Ohio State

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