$72 Million College Football Coach Predicted to be Fired if Losing Trend Persists

Florida State expects to win seven games by early October, but the proud program has won that many in just the last two seasons combined, putting enormous pressure on head coach Mike Norvell to right the ship before it goes on the rocks.

But are the Seminoles there already? More than a few analysts are of the opinion that Norvell is skating on some of the thinnest ice in college football in 2026.

And he’s been featured on some of the very early hot seat lists long before the season kicks off, including one compiled by USA Today’s Blake Toppermeyer.

Norvell on the hot seat?

“Norvell twice prolonged his tenure by getting a vote of confidence from his boss, first in 2021 and then again from a different boss last season,” Toppermeyer observed.

“Coaches generally don’t get a third vote of confidence. They get a buyout check.”

Three full seasons ago, in 2023, Norvell led Florida State to an undefeated ACC championship regular season and seemed destined for the College Football Playoff.

That is, until the selection committee intervened, choosing one-loss SEC champion Alabama instead in one of their most controversial decisions, one that helped torpedo the four-team format and create momentum to expand the playoff to 12 teams.

Not that the expansion has helped put the Seminoles anywhere near the playoff since then.

Seminoles in decline

Florida State was the 10th ranked team in college football to start the 2024 season, but that effort collapsed into a 2-10 disaster.

Things looked better to start 2025, with a monster upset win over No. 8 ranked Alabama and a 3-0 record, but the team stumbled again, to a 5-7 finish.

“I’ve put my head down and gone to work, that’s what I’ve done,” Norvell said when asked how he planned to fix things, via On3 Sports.

“I’ve done that regardless in years past when there have been talks of other opportunities. You stay focused on what you’re doing. You stay focused on the job that’s at hand, you’re trying to be the best you can be.”

Change coming in 2026

One notable area where the Seminoles will see a change is in who calls plays, and Norvell himself appears to be the direct beneficiary.

Florida State’s head coach is poised to once again take over the team’s offensive play calling after the retirement of former coordinator Gus Malzahn back in February.

Wide receivers coach and co-offensive coordinator Tim Harris, Jr. takes over the role formally, but Norvell himself is expected to call plays himself on game days, a role he held with varying degrees of success chiefly from 2022-24.

In his final year with those duties before bringing Malzahn into the picture, Norvell’s offense ranked 131st out of 134 FBS teams in scoring with just 15.4 points per game.

That average jumped to 22nd nationally with Malzahn at the helm, averaging 33 points, and ranking sixth in FBS in total offensive output.

Florida State needs to get aggressive

Norvell faces pressure to maintain that improvement, while jockeying for position in an ACC pecking order where Clemson is in decline and Miami has taken its place.

Florida State now sits at what athletic director Michael Alford has called “a defining moment,” in his letter to boosters.

So does its head coach. And with a buyout of almost $46 million staring them in the face, another lousy season could force them to break out the checkbook and start again.

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