ESPN's Pete Thamel predicts winner of Indiana-Miami College Football Playoff

With the College Football Playoff title game ahead, everyone is looking for a clear advantage in the matchup. Miami, while a significant underdog, does have the home field advantage and the momentum from its upset win over Ohio State.

Of course, Indiana is undefeated and also bested that same Ohio State team in the Big Ten title game. The Hoosiers are looking to be fhe first 16-0 team in college football history.

ESPN's Pete Thamel weighed in with his pick and also shared an interesting statistic that backed up his perspective. On the College GameDay podcast, Thamel that he is "going to lean Indiana in this game." He also shared why.

Thamel's Key to the Game

"I think one of the things that's really going to impact this game... is fewest penalty yards per game. Indiana is No.2 behind Army.... they average 26 penalty yards per game. Miami is number 84 in the country, and Miami has had some big penalty games. They had 13 penalties against Florida State, they had 12 in that loss to SMU, they had 10 the other night in the Fiesta Bowl."

Those type of games, to Thamel's mode of thinking, represent a situation that Miami would not be equipped to handle against Indiana.

"Miami cannot hurt themselves," said Thamel. "If Miami has punitive penalties that hurt themselves, then they're not going to win this football game."

The @CollegeGameDay pod breaks down the College Football Playoff title game. @CoachClawson of @accnetwork joins me and @DanWetzel. We make picks. Analyze the portal. And chat officiating. https://t.co/mRG8GzI59b pic.twitter.com/RqBIsnOA6B
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) January 13, 2026

Penalty Numbers

Miami was flagged for 105 penalties for 856 yards on the season. The Hurricanes had 21 flags in their two losses on the season. On the other hand, Indiana had 55 penalties for 403 yards. IU hasn't been flagged more than eight times in a game and hasn't allowed more than 49 penalty yards all season.

It is worth noting that neither team's penalty total existed in a vacuum. While Indiana had just 55 penalties, its opponents have been called for just 58 flags on the year. On the other hand, Miami's 105 penalties is a significant jump over the 76 that their opponents drew on the season.

Given Thamel's interest in penalties, it's notable that penalties didn't really play a role in last year's CFP title game. Ohio State won 34-23 despite drawing six flags in the game as opposed to three flags on the defeated Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Ohio State's line of -8.5 or -9 is very close to the current pregame odds in favor of Indiana. It's far from clear that Thamel's penalty issue will matter, but if it does, it doesn't seem to bode well for Miami.