ESPN Names Three College Football Superstars Who Could Impact the Playoff Race

Two September rematches and a prime-time trip to South Bend will tell the sport more about three teams than anything else before October.

Miami Hurricanes wide receiver Malachi Toney (10) runs with the ball against the Indiana Hoosiers during the second half of the College Football Playoff National Championship game. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Two September rematches and one prime-time trip to South Bend will do more to shape the playoff race than anything else on the schedule through Week 1. Three players sit at the center of all three games, and each one has something specific to prove that goes beyond just making plays.

One needs to show he can still win big matchups on the road. One needs to prove last year's finish was real growth and not a hot streak against soft competition. One needs to become a bigger problem for defenses than he already was as a teenager.

Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) shakes off Indiana Hoosiers defensive back D'Angelo Ponds (5) during the Big Ten Conference championship game. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Jeremiah Smith is the best receiver in college football, but Texas is the only team that has figured out how to slow him down, and it happened just last September. The Longhorns bracketed him relentlessly and held him to six catches for 43 yards, the worst game of his career by a wide margin.

That result should worry Ohio State more than any other data point from last season, because it proved Smith can be schemed around by a defense with the talent to match its aggression. He gets a second shot at that same defense on Sept. 12 in Austin, and this time there is no excuse available.

Smith is a team captain, and he has already declared this his final college season. The wideout has spent the offseason saying he wants a Heisman and a second national title before he leaves. None of that matters if Texas takes him away again.

A dominant performance in that building would answer the only real question left about his game. Another quiet night would hand Texas a second straight blueprint for beating Ohio State when it matters most.

Arch Manning, QB, Texas

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) runs during the second half of the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Arch Manning's final six games last season were genuinely excellent, but they came against a soft stretch of the schedule, and that distinction matters more than the numbers suggest. His 1,714 yards, 14 touchdowns and two interceptions over that stretch happened while Texas was pushing for playoff contention and playing loose. This year, like last year, making the College Football Playoff is the bare minimum expectation.

The Ohio State defense that held him to 170 yards in Week 1 is the toughest test he will see all year, and it comes before he has a chance to build any real 2026 momentum.

If Manning plays like the version of himself from December, Texas has a legitimate case as a national title contender and Manning becomes the Heisman favorite by October. If he reverts to the quarterback who looked overwhelmed in his first true test as a starter, every good throw from the back half of last season gets recast as garbage-time production against tired teams.

Sept. 12 is not just a measuring-stick game. It is the game that decides which version of Arch Manning college football actually has.

Malachi Toney, WR, Miami

Miami Hurricanes receiver Malachi Toney (10) reacts after getting a first down against the Ole Miss Rebels | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Malachi Toney was a must-watch as a true freshman. Still, the version of him that matters now is the one adjusting to a new quarterback. At the same time, defenses no longer have the element of surprise. Darian Mensah arrived from Duke to replace Carson Beck, and Miami spent the offseason adding receiver Cooper Barkate so Toney wouldn't have to carry the passing game alone.

That is the right move for Miami's offense, but it also means Toney's workload could shrink even as expectations for his impact grow.

The more interesting bet is what he does when the ball is not in his hands as a receiver. Toney has already shown he can throw, run and return kicks, and Miami's staff wants him doing more of all three in 2026.

The Nov. 7 trip to Notre Dame is where that bet gets tested. ESPN's model favors Miami in every other game on the schedule and favors Notre Dame in that one alone. Toney already has a touchdown against that defense in the biggest spot of his freshman year.

If he needs a signature moment to justify the preseason Heisman buzz, that night in South Bend is the one that will define whether Miami's offense is different enough from last season to get back to the playoff, not just as good.