Five most intriguing storylines for CFP national championship game

One of the most entertaining and captivating postseasons in the College Football Playoff era comes to a close Monday night with Miami and Indiana duking it out for the national championship.

The No. 10-seeded Hurricanes (13-2) are playing on their home field at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, but the No. 1 Hoosiers (15-0) have most casual college football fans behind them as they chase their first football national title.

Indiana is a 7.5-point favorite (at one point 8.5), per DraftKings Sportsbook, after a dominant postseason run so far in beating Alabama by 35 points and Oregon by 34 points to get to this point.

But Miami has also reached another level in the playoffs, especially defensively, while winning a 10-3 slugfest on the road at No. 7 Texas A&M, dethroning reigning champion and No. 2 seed Ohio State 24-14, and then outlasting No. 6 Ole Miss 31-27.

Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, and as the suspense builds toward game time, here are five final thoughts and storylines to set the stage for this national championship showdown.

Miami and Indiana play for the national championship Monday night. — Miami Hurricanes coach Mario Cristobal (left) and Indiana Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti shake hands during the CFP head coaches press conference at JW Marriott Marquis Miami. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

1. Is this the most compelling championship game of the CFP era?

The argument could be made for this as the most compelling national championship matchup of the College Football Playoff era, which dates back to the 2014 season.

No offense to all of the Alabama, Clemson, Georgia and Ohio State championships, with those schools accounting for nine of the 11 national titles under the CFP format (or formats, rather).

LSU's national championship run in 2019, capped by a 42-25 win over Clemson, belongs in the conversation simply because that Tigers team is now regarded as one of the greatest and most entertaining in college football history.

Michigan completing an undefeated season two years ago for its first national title in 26 years makes the list, but the game itself was a bit of a dud as the Wolverines rolled over Washington, 34-13.

The first two of three Alabama-Clemson national championship clashes, after the 2015 and 2016 seasons, deserve consideration. It marked the rise of a fresh college football power, and the teams delivered two tight, dramatic finishes and frenetic fourth quarters, with the Crimson Tide winning the first one 45-40 and the Tigers taking the rematch 35-31 for their first national title since the 1981 season.

And, sure, the first Alabama-Georgia CFP finale the next year was ripe with intrigue as it had not only the full SEC spotlight but also Nick Saban, recognized as the best coach in the sport, battling his former star assistant Kirby Smart for a come-from-behind 26-23 overtime victory.

But from at least a pure pregame matchup perspective, this is hard to beat.

Miami, more than two decades removed from the last of its five national championships, is one step away from reclaiming its perch atop the sport, while being coached by an alum in Mario Cristobal, who was part of two of those title teams and now is trying to restore the aura of "The U."

But Indiana is the greatest story in college football history (more on that again in a moment), coach Curt Cignetti just might be the sport's true successor to Saban (his former boss at Alabama), and the Hoosiers have been outright dominant this month.

Given that the outcome Monday night is either a former college football heavyweight returning to glory with its first national title in 24 years or Indiana winning its first-ever football national championship to complete the most improbable two-year run in the sport's history, this CFP finale is hard to top from a narrative standpoint.

Indiana plays Miami for the national championship Monday. — Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti holds up the trophy as confetti falls after defeating the Oregon Ducks in the Peach Bowl and semifinal game of the College Football Playoff. | Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

2. Final perspective on Indiana's improbable rise

The story is well-told by now, but that doesn't make it any less amazing.

There's a reason, correction, so many reasons, that many have suggested the Hoosiers are the greatest story in college football history (and perhaps even more broadly in American sports history).

Let's reiterate just a few ...

Entering this season, Indiana held the dubious distinction of having the most losses all-time in college football history before getting passed by Northwestern during the fall.

The Hoosiers hadn't won so much as a conference championship since 1967 before winning the Big Ten this season. They had won just three bowl games in their entire history -- the 1979 Holiday Bowl, the 1988 Liberty Bowl and the 1991 Copper Bowl -- before this month and could effectively match that in the span of 19 days after already winning the Rose Bowl over Alabama (which doubled as the CFP quarterfinals) and the Peach Bowl over Oregon (CFP semifinals).

Indiana had just three winning seasons in the 29 years before hiring Cignetti, topping out at 8-5, and in the three years before his arrival, the program went 2-10, 4-8 and 3-9 with a combined 3-24 Big Ten record.

In two seasons with Cignetti, the Hoosiers are 26-2 overall and 17-1 in Big Ten regular-season games (plus the Big Ten championship game win over Ohio State this season) with two CFP appearances and now this shot at the national title.

All with a core comprised mostly of three-star, two-star or entirely unrated recruits, including13 transfers Cignetti brought with him from James Madison. Only two Indiana starters -- wide receivers Omar Cooper Jr. and E.J. Williams Jr. -- were four-star prospects, per the 247Sports Composite.

There really is no overstating how incredible this all is.

Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza returns to Miami to play for the national title in his hometown. — Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) answers questions Saturday, Jan. 17, 2026, during the Indiana media day at the Miami Beach Convention Center in Miami. | Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

3. The Fernando Mendoza story within the story

If the Indiana story wasn't enough on its own, its star quarterback, Fernando Mendoza, could be a Disney sports movie plot unto himself.

An overlooked two-star recruit from Miami who was passed over by the hometown Hurricanes and every other Power Four program but Cal now returns to town as the newly minted Heisman Trophy winner, going against the school he grew up rooting for in their home stadium for all the stakes.

It's almost too rich to be real, yet it is.

"I have pictures on my phone and I had green and orange paint on my face with a UM hat at Hard Rock Stadium, before then, it wasn't Hard Rock Stadium (yet), so I know how much it means to the community and how much the University of Miami community has been waiting for this moment and a resurgence," Mendoza said.

"They've always been a fantastic football program, but a resurgence to the national championship level, I know how much it means. However, as a kid being a University of Miami fan, I'm also right now, like my loyalty lies to the Hoosiers. So I know how much it means to both sides."

"We're a bunch of misfits!"

Fernando Mendoza was HYPED to advance to the CFP natty 🔥 pic.twitter.com/wX5yVNVobi
— ESPN (@espn) January 10, 2026

Mendoza, ever humble, has tried to downplay any of this being about him, but it's too good a story angle to ignore -- even he can't deny that.

"I think playing any national championship is fantastic, and it means a little bit more to me," he admitted. "I used to be able to walk to University of Miami, used to play rec basketball games there or beach volleyball in the sand courts, and to live under a mile away it means a lot to myself."

Add in the wrinkle that Mendoza comes from the same high school, Christopher Columbus HS in Miami, as Cristobal, who was a high school teammate of Mendoza's father.

What makes it most special, though, is that all of this is happening because Mendoza has delivered a CFP performance for the ages, completing 31 of 36 passes for 8 TDs and 0 INTs in those dominant wins over Alabama and Oregon. That's right, 8 TDs with just 5 incompletions, on the biggest stage of his career.

If anyone doubted whether Mendoza deserved the Heisman Trophy, he's silenced all critics.

Miami quarterback Carson Beck is looking to end his six-year college football career on top. | Lauren Witte/Clarion Ledger / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

4. The Miami subplots

The narratives on the Miami side of the matchup deserve their spotlight too.

We touched on the aspect of Cristobal being the one to lead his alma mater back to this stage after the Hurricanes went through four other head coaches over two decades of mostly frustration and disappointment.

But in so doing, he is also redefining his own career legacy.

Before this season, it was fair to note that Cristobal had failed to deliver in the biggest moments and had earned a reputation for deflating late-season losses.

His 2019 Oregon team was 9-1 and No. 6 in the country, led by future NFL star QB Justin Herbert, before a late November loss to unranked Arizona State, which was 5-5 entering the game. The Ducks would win the Pac-12 championship but still fall short of the CFP as a result.

In 2021, his Ducks started off 9-1 again and were ranked No. 3 before losing twice in three weeks to Utah, including the Pac-12 championship game, to again miss out on the CFP.

And last year, he had Miami in prime position at 9-0 before losing to unranked Georgia Tech and Syracuse in the final three weeks to narrowly miss even the expanded 12-team CFP bracket, finishing No. 13 in the CFP rankings.

This time, the Hurricanes overcame their adversity earlier, shaking off losses to unranked Louisville and SMU in the span of three games mid-season to win their final four in dominant fashion and narrowly slipped into the CFP field with the final at-large berth.

With playoff wins over Texas A&M, Ohio State and Ole Miss, Cristobal has already changed the perception that he can't win the big games. One more and he'd put that notion to rest permanently.

Meanwhile, his quarterback Carson Beck is scripting his own redemption arc.

The shortcomings of Beck's Georgia tenure get overstated a bit. He was a solid quarterback for the Bulldogs, but the standard there couldn't have been higher when he took over after his predecessor, Stetson Bennett IV, led the program to back-to-back national titles.

Even though Beck led Georgia to a 12-0 regular season in his first year as a starter in 2023, the Bulldogs lost 27-24 to Alabama in the SEC championship game and missed the then-four-team CFP. Beck passed for 3,941 yards, 24 TDs and 6 INTs (with 4 rushing TDs) and capped the season by leading the team to 63-3 win over Florida State in the Orange Bowl, but it wasn't enough.

Especially not when Georgia lost twice during the 2024 regular season as Beck's numbers dipped (including a career-worst 12 INTs). He sustained a significant elbow injury in the SEC championship game win over Texas, with Gunner Stockton finishing things off and then starting the Bulldogs' playoff game last year.

He was set to leave Georgia one way or the other, initially declaring for the NFL draft, but Cristobal compelled him to give college football one more shot at Miami, and now he's at the doorstep of rewriting his legacy.

Beck struggled in Miami's two losses, throwing 6 picks over those games, but he was excellent down the stretch of the season while completing 79.5 % of his passes for 281.25 yards per game with 11 TDs and just one interception in leading those four dominant wins to put the Hurricanes back in the playoff conversation.

And he threw for 268 yards, 2 TDs and a pick while taking the game-winning score in himself on a 3-yard TD run with 18 seconds left to beat Ole Miss in the CFP semifinals.

"It's the best feeling I've ever had in my life," he said on the field after that moment.

"It's the best feeling I've ever had in my life."

What Carson Beck felt the moment he scored the game-winning TD 🔥 pic.twitter.com/fqUi1XszJ6
— ESPN (@espn) January 9, 2026

“I’m a big believer of Carson Beck,” Cristobal said. “Like him, our entire team on November 1, 2025, did not have very much positive energy surrounding them. I think Carson Beck epitomizes the ability to take an adverse situation and turn it into something not only positive but something that helps one grow, endure, and become a stronger and better version of themselves.

“He’s not caught up in personal accolades or awards. He wants to win, and he’s willing to do anything to win.”

Miami coach Mario Cristobal has his alma mater back in the national title game with matchup vs. No. 1 Indiana on Monday night. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

5. Home field advantage?

Technically, this is the first time any team has played an FBS national championship game in its home stadium, but it's actually the ninth time a team has played the finale in its home state.

The last such case was LSU winning the national title six years in the Superdome in New Orleans, but overall, teams playing for the national championship in their home state are just 4-4 all-time.

Again, though, this is a little different.

"It's hard to say," Cristobal said of any advantage for Miami. "We're in different uniforms, and we're on the other side. It still matters. It's still 120 yards long and 53 wide, and I expect what we all expect. We're home, and we expect home to show as strongly as humanly possible and make it as much of our atmosphere as possible."

Indiana made Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium feel like a home game in that semifinal win over Oregon, but it remains to be seen just how many Hoosiers fans will be able to secure a seat for this one in Miami's home stadium.

"I'm not sure it's a motivator," Cignetti said. "It is what it is; it's factual. This is where Miami plays their home football games, and we're playing a game against them with a lot on the line. That's it, plain and simple."