Indiana vs. Miami prediction: Who wins the national championship, and why?

College football hasn’t seen a 16-0 team since the 1894 season, all of 132 years ago, but the national championship game could result in some serious history being made by adding a second team to that list.

And not by just any old program. Indiana, the school with the most losses all-time, is on a two-year run under head coach Curt Cignetti that could go down as the greatest and fastest rebuild ever seen.

Indiana has run through everything in its path, going 26-2 under Cignetti over those two seasons, and now gets a shot at Miami for the College Football Playoff national championship.

Miami has taken down SEC challenger Texas A&M, reigning national champion Ohio State, and another SEC hopeful in Ole Miss on its playoff run, and gets a shot at what would be its sixth title by playing in its own stadium.

Indiana vs. Miami: What to watch

Indiana vs. Miami college football national championship prediction — Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

1. Battle of the Trenches

Indiana’s identity has centered around a powerful offensive line and a two-headed rushing attack that stays on schedule and wears defenses down over four quarters.

The Hoosiers run the ball on over half their snaps and rank among the nation’s better rushing attacks, using that ground game to set up a highly efficient passing attack.

Miami, however, counterpunches with a defensive front that leads the FBS in sacks and has often taken over games by creating disruption in the backfield.

When the Hurricanes are at their best, they collapse the pocket with edge pressure and interior push, creating negative plays that flip both field position and momentum.

If Indiana keeps its run game on schedule and limits Miami’s sack opportunities, the Hoosiers’ balanced offense should consistently finish drives.

But if Miami wins first down, forces third-and-long, and lets its pass rush tee off, the Hurricanes can drag this game into the kind of chaotic script they need.

2. Turnovers and Discipline

Miami has battled penalty and turnover issues all year, including multiple games with double-digit flags and critical mistakes that stalled promising drives.

Indiana, by contrast, ranks near the top nationally in fewest penalties and has played a clean, controlled brand of football throughout its unbeaten run.

On top of that discipline edge, Indiana’s defense is one of the nation’s most opportunistic units, ranking near the top in both fumble recoveries (6th) and interceptions (7th) while using sudden-change plays to break open its playoff wins.

Miami’s offense has been at its best when it plays a clean game, as seen in the quarterfinal victory against Ohio State where the Hurricanes had no accepted penalties and a positive turnover margin.

If Miami replicates the clean performance from its Cotton Bowl win, it can neutralize Indiana’s advantage in hidden yardage and stay within striking distance late.

But if the Hurricanes revert to their penalty- and turnover-prone habits, Indiana’s defense is poised to turn those errors into instant points and short fields.

3. Controlling the Clock and Flow

Both teams want to dictate tempo, but in different ways. Miami’s offense leans on a bruising run game behind a cohesive offensive line, stringing together long drives that lean on defenses and help the Hurricanes win time of possession.

Indiana, meanwhile, marries its own strong run game with efficient third-down execution, ranking among the nation’s best at sustaining drives and controlling the clock.

Because both teams are used to owning the ball, something has to give.

Miami’s recent playoff wins have featured extended, physical possessions that set up explosive plays for receiver Malachi Toney and ease the burden on quarterback Carson Beck.

Indiana’s method is quieter but equally punishing, steadily winning early downs, staying ahead of the chains and squeezing opponents into mistakes over four quarters.

Whoever wins early downs and third-down efficiency should control the game script and keep its defense fresh for the fourth quarter.

If Indiana continues its season-long edge in down-and-distance and clock control, the Hoosiers’ depth and balance should carry them.

But if the Hurricanes can flip that script with long, run-heavy drives, the Hurricanes have the formula for a late upset punch.

Indiana vs. Miami: Who wins the national championship?

Line: Indiana -8.5, 47.5

Miami does have the bodies along the offensive line to keep the Hoosiers from getting whatever they want in the pass rush, and they can open enough holes to let the ground game from churning out some decent gainers to keep this close most of the night.

And the Hurricanes also have serious firepower along their front seven to cause a little trouble for Fernando Mendoza in the Indiana pocket and rattle the quarterback.

But until proven otherwise, the Hoosiers cannot be stopped. They’re too physical in the trenches and too disciplined at quarterback and boast serious skill players who have shown they can skirt around some of the better defenses in the country all year.

College Football HQ picks...

Indiana wins 30-20
Covers the spread
And hits the over

How to watch the national championship game

When: Mon., Jan. 19
Where: Miami Gardens

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks