Former No. 1 overall prospect predicted to be top college football quarterback

A wait spanning just under seven months lies between the beginning of February and the first weekend of the 2026 college football season.

With the offseason in full swing, the college football media landscape is beginning to determine which storylines will dominate the 2026 season. Once again, Arch Manning and the Texas Longhorns have emerged as one of the most prominent storylines going into the college football season.

The 6-foot-4, 219-pounder was the No. 1 quarterback in the class of 2023 when he announced his commitment to Texas. Manning's appearances in his first two seasons with the Longhorns were limited as Quinn Ewers was their starter, but an injury to Ewers and the occasional quarterback run package gave him the opportunity to see the field.

In 2024, Manning passed for 939 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions while rushing for 108 yards and four touchdowns.

Manning's promotion to the starting role gathered all kinds of attention toward him leading up to the 2025 season. However, the Longhorns did not storm out of the gate; they suffered road losses to Ohio State and Florida as a part of their 3-2 start to 2025.

The Longhorns gradually improved over their final eight games of the 2025 season. After a stretch that featured hard-fought, competitive wins over Oklahoma, Kentucky and Mississippi State, Texas rattled off ranked wins against Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Michigan to end the season. The Longhorns won seven of their last eight games to finish 2025 at 10-3 overall.

With the resurgence on the back half of the 2025 season, many around the college football media landscape are ready to give Manning a second chance as a potential No. 1 overall pick in 2027. ESPN college football analyst Kirk Herbstreit recently voiced his opinion on On3's "Crain and Cone."

NEW: @KirkHerbstreit on Texas QB Arch Manning to @CrainAndCone:

“He lived it, he experienced it, he survived it. I’ll be shocked, when the dust settles, if he’s not the guy in the class.”https://t.co/qhLxtmRlTX pic.twitter.com/fShCoFzUSl
— On3 (@On3) February 9, 2026

"I think he's been through a tough stretch where the expectations were almost unfair, and a lot of it was his own doing," Herbstreit said.

"He felt the tension, (I) think it affected him. But when you're going into a season saying 'he's better than both of his uncles, he's better than his grandpa,' it's like every throw had to be like 'whoa, did you see that?' I think he lived it, he experienced it, he survived it. I'll be shocked, when the dust settles, if he's not the guy in the class."

Herbstreit additionally mentioned former TCU and current Indiana starting quarterback Josh Hoover could jockey for position as the No. 1 overall pick in 2027, citing the same increased exposure Fernando Mendoza received in 2025.

Oregon starter Dante Moore figures to factor into the conversation since he was right behind Mendoza in the 2026 quarterback projections until he decided to stay with the Ducks.

Arch Manning before Texas' game against Arkansas. — Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) warms up before a game against the Arkansas Razorbacks | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images