Greg McElroy explains 'nightmare situation' that could push Notre Dame out of playoff

The college football analyst warned on his podcast that Notre Dame could miss the playoff if multiple conference champions leap ahead.

ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy detailed scenarios where Notre Dame could wind up with a first-round home game or even miss the College Football Playoff completely. | Vasha Hunt-Imagn Images

Notre Dame football delivered one of the most dominant wins in program history Saturday, hammering Syracuse 70-7 to cap its home schedule in style. Running back Jeremiyah Love rushed for 171 yards and three touchdowns on just eight carries, while Notre Dame’s defense scored twice before the offense even touched the ball. It was the kind of emphatic performance that seemed to cement the Fighting Irish as a College Football Playoff lock.

But as ESPN analyst Greg McElroy explained on Always College Football, there’s a “nightmare scenario” still lurking. Notre Dame’s resume includes wins over USC, Navy and Pittsburgh, but the path to hosting a playoff game, or even staying in the top 12, depends on chaos elsewhere. Pitt’s recent win over Georgia Tech helped, yet the Irish may not have any victories over top-20 teams when the next rankings arrive.

McElroy laid out how results in other leagues could completely change Notre Dame’s outlook. If Alabama wins the SEC Championship after defeating Auburn, and if the Big 12 produces two playoff-caliber teams in BYU and Texas Tech, the Irish could find themselves squeezed out of the field.

Greg McElroy Details Notre Dame’s Playoff Scenarios

“Pitt will likely find themselves back in the top 25,” McElroy said. “So Notre Dame will likely have two wins against top 25 teams, but probably no wins against anyone that's ranked in the top 20. So I don't see a scenario right now where they can host a home playoff game based on their own merits. They're kind of at the mercy of what happens around them.”

He outlined the many steps necessary to host a playoff game: “You probably need Mississippi to lose at Mississippi State, Oklahoma to lose to LSU, and Oregon to lose to Washington. If Alabama wins in the Iron Bowl, then plays Texas A&M or Georgia in the SEC title game, Alabama can strengthen their resume to the point in which they jump in front of Notre Dame.”

Then came the true nightmare: how the Irish could miss the playoffs entirely. “Texas Tech wins, they punch their ticket to the Big 12 title. Then BYU wins the Big 12 Championship Game against Texas Tech, avenging the regular season loss,” McElroy said. “Now you have two Big 12 teams in the field because Texas Tech right now is sitting there at No. 5.

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman and the Irish are likely playoff-bound, but there is a series of outcomes that could keep them out. | Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

"The committee last year gave us some precedent with how things kind of shook up when it came to Conference Championship Saturday. SMU was in a very similar situation to Texas Tech. They lost the conference title game and didn’t fall out of the field. The team that won, Clemson, went in. So now there’s two Big 12 teams in BYU and Texas Tech, which could force Notre Dame potentially out of the field.”

McElroy added that Notre Dame could “get bumped out for an ACC champion, get bumped out for the Group of 5 champion, and if Alabama wins the SEC, they would jump in front of the Irish.” He said, “While it appears like Notre Dame is very, very safe, I'd be shocked if they fell out of the College Football Playoff field. However, there is a nightmare situation that is there.”

Notre Dame, currently 9-2, closes its regular season on the road at Stanford on Saturday at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.