Josh Pate identifies trap game for college football powerhouse in Week 8

On Thursday’s episode of his College Football Show podcast, college football analyst Josh Pate issued a pointed warning about the Texas Longhorns. Pate said the trip to the Kentucky Wildcats is exactly the kind of road spot that unravels momentum if focus slips, especially for a program still repairing an early-season resume. He framed the visit to Lexington as a trap for a favorite that cannot afford a stumble.

Pate challenged Texas to match the urgency it carried in its 23-6 win over the Oklahoma Sooners. He praised quarterback Arch Manning’s trajectory, then drew a hard line about what this moment demands from a contender with limited wiggle room.

“You should be able to have success here. Just don’t be stupid. Just go get the win and get home,” Pate said, adding that an early loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes and a setback against the Florida Gators mean Texas “has no margin for error.” He placed a “five” on his upset-alert meter.

Texas At Kentucky Trap Game, Josh Pate’s Warning And Keys

Pate’s case leans on opponent profile and situational discipline. Texas is favored, yet the Kentucky Wildcats under head coach Mark Stoops often force methodical football and wait for mistakes. Texas has been whistled heavily this season, ranking 118th in penalty yards per game, while Kentucky sits 34th. That gap turns manageable drives into long-yardage problems if the Longhorns are careless, which is the precise environment that fuels underdog hope.

On the field, matchups tilt toward Texas if execution holds. The Texas defense ranks 10th in total yards allowed, fourth against the run, and third in scoring defense. Those strengths collide with a Kentucky offense at 111th in total offense and 94th in scoring. Texas also wields an eighth-ranked turnover margin at plus-six, facing a Kentucky team at minus-two. If the Longhorns protect the ball and avoid pre-snap or drive-killing penalties, Kentucky’s 68th-ranked third down offense will find points hard to stack.

Kentucky Wildcats running back Seth McGowan (3) has 431 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on 79 carries this season. | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Pate spotlighted Arch Manning’s “scaling up” form as a lever against a Kentucky pass defense ranked 112th. He also underscored the need for competitive maturity after beating Oklahoma, reminding viewers that signature wins grant no immunity the next week.

The Wildcats have leaned on running back Seth McGowan and tight ends who threaten seams, yet Texas’ front has smothered rushing lanes and forces quarterbacks to win in obvious passing situations. That is where Texas can squeeze mistakes from Kentucky quarterback Cutter Boley and tilt the field with short drives and hidden yardage.

Margin For Error, Kentucky’s Blueprint, And What Will Decide It

Kentucky’s path is straightforward. Slow the game, win field position, and coax Texas into impatience. Stoops’ defense has lived on opponents’ miscues and timely plays in off coverage. Corners bait throws in front, then break on the ball if quarterbacks drift into lazy reads. That style demands Texas sustain focus on first downs and stay out of must-throw downs where penalties or tipped balls flip momentum. If the Wildcats keep it within one score, special teams and a single turnover can swing the final possession.

Texas can simplify the equation by leaning on defense and situational dominance it already owns. The Longhorns hold opponents to a 29.9 percent conversion rate on third down, which pairs with Kentucky’s 40 percent offense. That disparity, combined with Texas’ run defense and turnover edge, points to a game where patience produces separation. Manning does not need heroics, he needs command, timely throws against soft coverage, and ball security. Explosive plays are a bonus, but chain-moving efficiency that avoids penalties is the cleaner route to closing time.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) may have turned a corner last week against Oklahoma, but a letdown against Kentucky in Week 8 would end that forward momentum. | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Pate’s “five” on the concern meter is not about matchups, it is about psychology. Texas is 4-2, the postseason math is tight, and Week 8 road trips test maturity after emotional wins. Do the basic things well and the better roster advances, drift into sloppiness and Kroger Field becomes a trap door.

The Longhorns will face the Kentucky Wildcats at Kroger Field on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.