Josh Pate Names Major College Football Coach Who Is on the Hottest Seat

The 2026 college football season is fast approaching, and a few major coaches are already feeling the pressure.

One of those is Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell. He's 38-34 in his six seasons in Tallahassee. However, there was once a time when Norvell looked like he was going to be the coach for the foreseeable future.

Norvell took over a program before the 2020 season that had two straight losing seasons. His first two seasons were not great, as he had losing seasons, but he showed some progress in 2021. In 2022, the breakout happened as the Seminoles went 10-3.

They built on that by going 13-0 in the regular season and won the ACC championship. They felt they were a lock for the College Football Playoff, but after star quarterback Jordan Travis went down, the Seminoles were left out of the field.

They would then get beaten badly against the Georgia Bulldogs in the bowl game and have never been able to recover.

Florida State head coach Mike Norvell leads practice. | Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Mike Norvell's Seat is Scorching

In fact, Norvell is 7-17 over the last two seasons, which has him fully on the hot seat this season. College football analyst Josh Pate ranked Norvell No. 1 in his hot seat rankings on "Josh Pate's College Football Show."

"I think Mike Norvell obviously is No. 1," Pate said. "So, Mike Norvell is the only guy in this list... I can't find any optimism around... I just see very, very few avenues where it works out, and that's unfortunate."

Florida State Buyout Problem

The issue is that Norvell's buyout is large. His buyout is 85% of his remaining contract, and from 2025 to 2031, Norvell is scheduled to make $72.7 million. After last season, the buyout is still $53.3 million. The buyout can be paid in full or in monthly installments through the 2031 season.

That is one thing that likely saved his job after this past season. But it likely won't save it for much longer. In the NIL era, administrators have hesitated to move on from a coach they no longer believe in. That's because you can't get behind in this new era. If you do, you risk never being able to get back to where you once were.

Pressure Mounting in 2026

That's why 2026 feels like a make-or-break season for Norvell. Two years ago, he had Florida State on the doorstep of the College Football Playoff and looked like one of the rising stars in the profession. Now, after back-to-back disappointing seasons, the margin for error is gone.

If the Seminoles don't show significant improvement this fall, Florida State may decide that an expensive buyout is a price worth paying to start over.

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