Paul Finebaum Blasts Major SEC Programs Over/Under Win Total Ahead of 2026 Season

The 2026 college football season is fast approaching as fall camp has begun for programs across the country. This means the race to unseat the Indiana Hoosiers as national champions is on.

The Alabama Crimson Tide are one of the teams hoping to do that. They are coming off an 11-4 campaign in Year 2 under head coach Kalen DeBoer. This followed a 9-4 season in his first year.

Alabama Has Bounce-Back Season in 2025

He led Alabama back to the SEC Championship Game and the College Football Playoff last season, but the team lost 28-7 to the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC title game and lost to Indiana 38-3 in the quarterfinals of the playoff after defeating the Oklahoma Sooners in the first round.

The Crimson Tide enter the 2026 season returning 48% of their production last season, which ranks No. 85 in college football, according to ESPN. The biggest hit is on the offensive side of the ball. Alabama returns just 35% of its offensive production, which ranks No. 119 in the country.

Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer watches in the second half. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Paul Finebaum Thinks Alabama's Win Total Is Too Low

Because of some concerns with the team, Alabama's over/under was set at 8.5 for the season. ESPN's Paul Finebaum blasted that number on "The Paul Finebaum Show."

"A pretty interesting analysis there with the number at 8.5, and I agree with Mike, that is too low," Finebaum said. "For whatever criticism you may have, this team looks better than that."

Alabama Faces Major Questions at QB

One of the biggest question marks for the Crimson Tide this season is the quarterback position. For the third straight year, there will be a different signal-caller for Alabama. Ty Simpson decided to leave for the NFL rather than return to Tuscaloosa.

The competition is between former five-star Keelon Russell and veteran Austin Mack. The issue for both is that they don't have much experience. Mack has the most, but has only thrown 35 passes in his career for 228 yards and three scores.

Russell appeared in just two games as a true freshman last season, throwing for 143 yards and two scores. Mack has been in the system longer, but Russell is considered the more talented one. He would also add more to the running game.

That battle will likely decide if Alabama can prove Finebaum right and also return to the College Football Playoff this season. If it remains a concern during the season, the pressure on DeBoer will only increase.

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