Josh Pate names SEC program on upset alert entering Week 7

Tennessee football enters Week 7 favored over Arkansas, but Josh Pate warns the Razorbacks could pull off an SEC upset.

Arkansas Razorbacks interim head coach Bobby Petrino could make the difference in the program's attempt to earn the upset win on the road against the Tennessee Volunteers. | Nathan Papes/Springfield News-Leader / USA TODAY NETWORK

Tennessee fans may want to tread carefully this weekend. On Thursday’s episode of “Josh Pate’s College Football Show,” the national analyst placed the No. 12 Tennessee Volunteers on upset alert ahead of their matchup with the Arkansas Razorbacks.

The Volunteers enter Saturday’s game at Neyland Stadium as 12.5-point favorites, but Pate suggested that gap may not reflect the reality of this matchup.

“I’m going to put a seven on this game,” Pate said, referencing his internal upset alert scale. “I think it’s going to be low-key way more competitive than America is ready to admit. I don’t think most of America even knows this game’s happening. I think there are four or five SEC games bigger than this one this week, and no one’s paying attention to this game except us.”

For Arkansas, the game represents both a challenge and a chance for redemption. Interim head coach Bobby Petrino returns to the program he once led to national prominence, now seeking to reignite a team that has dropped three straight. Meanwhile, Tennessee is riding high after a 41–34 win over Mississippi State and a much-needed bye week to rest and reset before diving deeper into SEC play.

Josh Pate Cites Matchup Discrepancies Between Arkansas and Tennessee

Pate’s reasoning for listing Tennessee as vulnerable stems from the Razorbacks’ offensive potential and the Volunteers’ defensive vulnerabilities. “Arkansas has got a top-20 passing offense. Tennessee pass defense in the 100s,” Pate explained. “Tennessee’s going to get theirs — they’re off a bye, they’re at home — but Arkansas could as well.” He also noted the unpredictability of interim-coach situations, calling them “wild variance” games where locker rooms can rally in unexpected ways.

Statistically, the Razorbacks present a legitimate threat through the air. Quarterback Taylen Green has accounted for 1,398 passing yards and 12 touchdowns, while leading his team in rushing with 441 yards.

Arkansas Razorbacks wide receiver O'Mega Blake (9) leads the team with 30 receptions for 399 yards and three touchdowns. | Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

Wide receiver O’Mega Blake has become Green’s top target, hauling in 30 receptions for 399 yards. On the other side, Tennessee’s defense ranks 118th in pass yards allowed (259.2 per game) and 103rd in scoring defense, numbers that could give Petrino’s squad confidence.

Tennessee will counter with quarterback Joey Aguilar, who has thrown for 1,459 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. Aguilar’s chemistry with wideout Chris Brazzell II — 31 receptions for 531 yards and seven scores — has kept head coach Josh Heupel’s offense among the nation’s most explosive. The Volunteers average 536.4 yards and a nation-best 51 points per game.

Bobby Petrino’s Return Adds Storyline to Week 7 Showdown

For Petrino, this weekend’s game offers more than just a shot at an upset — it’s personal. “I felt like I had a lot of unfinished business here,” Petrino said earlier this week. “I left a lot of friends and people I love the first time, and I let them all down. This is a chance to help improve a football program we all love.”

His return has energized parts of the Arkansas fanbase, though the challenge ahead is steep. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Razorbacks just a 17.4% chance to win. Arkansas will rely on Green’s mobility and Petrino’s offensive creativity to spark consistency, particularly in the second half where the team has struggled to sustain drives. Defensively, Arkansas ranks 119th in total defense and 126th on third downs, allowing opponents to convert 47% of the time.

Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green (10) has passed for 1,398 yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions, also adding 441 yards and two rushing scores on the ground. | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Still, Pate believes this matchup’s volatility makes it dangerous for Tennessee. “To do it, something wild’s going to have to happen,” he said. “But it may be possible.”

The Razorbacks and Volunteers meet at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville on Saturday at 4:15 p.m. ET on SEC Network.