Josh Pate Puts SEC Powerhouse on Upset Alert Amid Offensive Line Concerns

College football analyst Josh Pate thinks No. 17 Tennessee could be in danger against Auburn on Saturday because the Volunteers lost a first-team All-SEC guard, likely for the season, one week after Texas sacked their quarterback 10 times.

Pate gave Auburn at Tennessee an 8.5 on his upset alert meter, the highest number he gave any game on his Week 5 show. "I'm worried about Tennessee," Pate said. "This Wendell Moe injury on the offensive line is a really big deal."

Wendell Moe Jr. injury hits Tennessee

Josh Pate Puts Tennessee on Upset Alert vs. Auburn Amid Offensive Line Concerns — Tennessee offensive lineman Wendell Moe Jr. (75) before the game between Tennessee and Kennesaw State | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Moe went down on Tennessee's opening drive of the 20-17 loss to No. 1 Texas on Sept. 26 and didn't return. Reports surfaced Wednesday that the fifth-year senior is expected to miss the rest of the 2026 season.

The 6-foot-2, 330-pound Arizona transfer started all four games at left guard. Right guard Sham Umarov is questionable for Saturday, so Tennessee could take the field without either starting guard.

Texas piled up 10 sacks and 12 tackles for loss, and true freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon went 17-of-29 for 145 yards.

How can Auburn upset Tennessee?

Josh Pate Puts SEC Powerhouse on Upset Alert Amid Offensive Line Concerns — Auburn Tigers running back Jeremiah Cobb (23) runs for a first down | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Pate laid out two keys for Auburn. The first is a better run game. "They've got to really weaponize Jeremiah Cobb," Pate said. "They've got to run the ball a whole lot better against Tennessee than they did against Florida."

Auburn ran for only 102 yards in its 44-39 home loss to Florida on Sept. 19. Cobb looked sharper in a 21-15 win over Vanderbilt, with 58 yards on eight carries. Auburn also ranks No. 23 nationally in expected points added per rush.

The second key is quarterback play. Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown followed Auburn coach Alex Golesh from South Florida, and Pate wants the veteran to win the matchup. "Byrum Brown has been up and down, up and down, maybe even more down than up so far," Pate said. "But this is not a season. This is one game."

Brown has taken 14 sacks in four games, and Tennessee is tied with LSU for the SEC lead with 19 sacks.

Auburn defense vs. Faizon Brandon

Pate also wants Auburn defensive coordinator DJ Durkin's unit to follow the Texas plan. "I need to make a true freshman look like a true freshman," Pate said. "Get them doubting themselves a little bit."

Durkin's defense gave up 44 points and 495 yards to Florida, then held Vanderbilt to 15 points and 311 yards. Brandon has seven touchdown passes and no interceptions, but Tennessee ranks No. 100 nationally in passing success rate.

Golesh is returning to Knoxville. He coordinated the offense for Tennessee coach Josh Heupel in 2021, when the Vols set a school record with 511 points.

Both teams are 3-1 with one SEC loss. Pate called it "the sneaky game of the afternoon that's not on a lot of people's radars, but could end up being a complete dogfight."

Auburn and Tennessee kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday at Neyland Stadium on ESPN.

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