Auburn vs. Tennessee Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 5

Auburn is an underdog against Tennessee in Week 5 of the college football season. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Tennessee Volunteers came close to upsetting the No. 1 team in the country, falling three points short against the Texas Longhorns and suffering their first loss of the season. They'll look to bounce back in Week 5 when they host the 3-1 Auburn Tigers.

Auburn lost in a shootout to Florida in Week 3, but then bounced back with a solid 21-15 win against Vanderbilt in Week 4. The jury is still out on how good this Auburn team is, but by the end of the day Saturday, we'll have a better idea of where they stand.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this game.

Auburn vs. Tennessee Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Spread

• Auburn +7 (-108)
• Tennessee -7 (-110)

Moneyline

• Auburn +230
• Tennessee -285

Total

• OVER 54.5 (-105)
• UNDER 54.5 (-112)

Auburn vs. Tennessee How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, October 3
• Time: 3:30 pm ET
• Venue: Neyland Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Auburn record: 3-1
• ESPN record: 3-1

Auburn vs. Tennessee Betting Trends

• Auburn is 3-2 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams
• The UNDER is 3-2 in the last five meetings between these two teams
• Auburn is 3-7 against the spread in its last 10 games
• The UNDER is 6-4 in Auburn's last 10 games
• Tennessee is 4-6 against the spread in its last 10 games
• The UNDER is 6-4 in Tennessee's last 10 games

Auburn vs. Tennessee Key Player to Watch

• Byrum Brown, QB - Auburn Tigers

Byrum Brown has had some growing pains in his first year with Auburn. The former USF quarterback has thrown for 896 yards and six touchdowns, while adding 237 yards and three touchdowns on the ground, but he has also thrown five interceptions. He needs to fix his turnover issue if Auburn wants to have any chance of competing in the SEC this season.

Auburn vs. Tennessee Prediction and Best Bet

Tennessee certainly deserves to be favored in this game, but I think the spread is too lopsided in favor of the Volunteers. When looking at some advanced metrics, there's not much difference between these two teams. They rank 37th and 38th in adjusted net EPA per play, and Auburn actually has the advantage in net success rate, +4.8% compared to Tennessee at +1.7%.

It's also important to note that Tennessee loves to run the football, ranking in the top 30 in run-play percentage. Meanwhile, the Tigers rank 25th in opponent yards per carry (3.1) and 33rd in opponent rush success rate.

I think the Tigers can keep this one within a touchdown.

Pick: Auburn +7 (-108) via BetMGM

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