Kirk Herbstreit Urges Caution on SEC Powerhouse Amid Sky-High 2026 Expectations

ESPN college football analyst Kirk Herbstreit has spent months hyping up Arch Manning. On The Pat McAfee Show this week, he made clear that his faith in the Texas quarterback does not mean he is ready to hand the Longhorns anything.

Herbstreit was asked directly about Texas and its reputation as the most talented roster in the sport and his answer came with a warning attached.

Herbstreit lays out his concern with Texas football

When co-host AJ Hawk brought up the idea that Texas has the deepest roster in college football, Herbstreit did not disagree with the premise. He agreed, then pivoted straight into the part that worries him.

"I know they do. I'm a fan of Sark. I'm a fan of Texas," Herbstreit said. "I'm not a fan of (what happened) last year, remember we had preseason Texas, LSU, Clemson, Penn State? None of those teams could handle the pressure."

All four of those programs entered 2025 as trendy title contenders, and all four came up short of expectations.

Herbstreit is not questioning whether Texas has the players. He is questioning whether being the popular pick actually works against a team once the season starts.

"I feel like Texas is incredibly talented. This will probably be Sark's best team," Herbstreit said. "But can they handle week in and week out?"

He also took a lighter jab at the program's presence on TikTok, comparing it unfavorably to Mississippi State, though he was clear he was talking about the content itself and not the roster.

Sky-high Texas expectations meet a brutal 2026 schedule

The hesitation from Herbstreit lines up with what the numbers say about Texas heading into the season. Phil Steele ranked the Longhorns' 2026 slate as the toughest in the country, a gauntlet that includes six preseason top-25 opponents. Texas opens against Ohio State in week two, then faces Tennessee, Oklahoma in Dallas, Ole Miss, LSU and Texas A&M before any potential SEC Championship appearance.

That workload comes for a team that went 10-3 last season and missed the College Football Playoff for the first time in three years under Sarkisian, a stretch Herbstreit referenced directly.

"Sark has been that close for three years," Herbstreit said.

Much of the optimism around Texas still centers on Manning, who is entering his second full season as the starter after a first year that swung from Heisman hype to national criticism and back. Herbstreit has not been shy about crediting that experience for the quarterback's development. In a separate conversation with On3's Crain and Cone, Herbstreit shared his belief in Manning.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning — Texas quarterback Arch Manning (16) is in a great position to lead the Longhorns to their first national championship since 2005. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

"He lived it, he experienced it, he survived it," Herbstreit said. "I'll be shocked when the dust settles if he's not the guy in the class."

Sarkisian backed that belief with a significant transfer portal push this offseason, adding pieces like Auburn receiver Cam Coleman to a roster that finished 247Sports' preseason SEC media poll as the runner-up behind Georgia, receiving five first-place votes to Georgia's seven.

Texas has the talent to win the national title. Whether that talent translates to on-field success depends on how the Longhorns respond to being the team everyone expects to succeed, and last season's near miss is the reason he is not ready to call it a sure thing.

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