Michigan's College Football Playoff chances revealed amid Ohio State game

Michigan still has a chance to make the College Football Playoff, but the Wolverines' need another upset victory against Ohio State. Find out what happens in the CFP race with a Michigan win or loss versus Ohio State.

Oct 25, 2025; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Michigan State Spartans during the first half at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brendan Mullin-Imagn Images | Brendan Mullin-Imagn Images

Michigan's College Football Playoff chances are a bit complicated, but it all starts with the Wolverines needing another upset win over Ohio State. Heading into the rivlary matchup, Michigan had just a 10% chance to make the College Football Playoff, per ESPN.

Michigan's path to the postseason got a bit more windy following Texas' upset win over Texas A&M, adding another team in the mix for an at-large spot. The simplest playoff path for Michigan is to win the Big Ten, but the Wolverines need some help to make that happen.

Heading into The Game, Michigan sat at No. 15 in the College Football Playoff rankings. The Wolverines likely need to climb up to No. 10 in the final rankings given the highest ranked Group of Six champion as well as the ACC champ are projected to land the final two spots in the College Football Playoff bracket.

November 2️⃣5️⃣ College Football Playoff Selection Committee Rankings

1️⃣5️⃣. Michigan // @UMichFootball#CFBPlayoff 🏈🏆 pic.twitter.com/xJet5P2YVd

— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) November 26, 2025

Here's a look at Michigan's potential path to the College Football Playoff.

Michigan's College Football Playoff chances with a win vs. Ohio State

Even if Michigan defeats Ohio State, the Wolverines need Washington to upset Oregon in order to make the Big Ten Championship. Michigan has a 40% chance to make the College Football Playoff if the Wolverines upset Ohio State but do not make the Big Ten Championship, per ESPN's playoff predictor.

Michigan at #15 in the playoff ranking. Even if they beat OSU it feels like they need help

They have to climb into the Top 10 because ACC and G5 will be 11-12 pic.twitter.com/0KLP7QrALs

— Jim Costa (@JimCosta_) November 26, 2025

This number jumps up to 100% if Michigan can win the Big Ten with a 57% chance to host a first-round playoff game. A loss in the Big Ten title game would drop the Wolverines' postseason chances to 36%.

Michigan's College Football Playoff chances with a loss vs. Ohio State

A Michigan loss to Ohio State all but guarantees the Wolverines will not make the College Football Playoff. This scenario gives Michigan three losses and would eliminate the Wolverines from Big Ten contention.

ESPN projects that a Michigan loss versus Ohio State would give the Wolverines less than a 1% chance to make the postseason. To summarize, a Michigan win without a Big Ten title still puts the Wolverines' postseason hopes in serious doubt.

"The loss to No. 8 Oklahoma, though, will probably keep them behind the Sooners for an at-large bid if they both finish with the same record," ESPN's Heather Dinich wrote on Tuesday. "Nobody in the country, though, will have a better win than Michigan if it beats the Buckeyes for a fifth straight season."

Michigan fans should be rooting against teams like Alabama and Vanderbilt who are also in the mix for a potential at-large spot in the College Football Playoff.