One SEC Program Is Flying Under the Radar in the College Football Playoff Race

Oklahoma coach Brent Venables watches during a Sooners football spring practice. | BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Oklahoma Sooners have a ton of momentum heading into the 2026 season. That's because the team went 10-3 after going 6-7 in 2024, the program’s first year in the SEC.

That jump wasn’t just an improvement; it should be viewed as a legitimate statement that this blueprint can win in the SEC when the roster finally aligns with a defensive-first identity. Still, it’s fair to fully trust it yet; the real test is whether this was a foundation or just a spike year.

The defense led the way as Venables resumed play-calling duties. Venables is recognized as one of the top defensive minds in college football, having won three national championships as a coordinator at Clemson and Oklahoma.

His defense in 2025 was among the best in college football, which significantly contributed to the team’s successful season and a return to the CFP. And honestly, that side of the ball feels locked in; there’s no longer a “can they be good?” conversation.

It’s “can they stay elite?” If Oklahoma is going to take the next step in 2026, it won’t be because of the defense. That unit is already championship-caliber. The real question is whether the offense can rise to match it.

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) carries the ball. | BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Sooners rank No. 16 in the country in returning production for next season, which adds to the optimism. Oklahoma returns 75% of its offensive production, which is No. 3 nationally. That includes quarterback John Mateer, who threw for 2,885 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions last season.

Here’s where there is pushback on the optimism a bit: returning production doesn’t automatically equal improvement, especially when the offense ranked No. 92 nationally. That’s a major gap that can’t be ignored.

One person very optimistic about the Sooners is On3's JD PicKell. He said on "The Paul Finebaum Show" that he's very high on what is taking place in Norman and thinks they could be a dark-horse playoff team this year.

"I have so much belief in what they're building in Norman from a structural level and a cultural level," PicKell said. "I think Mateer is also being wildly overlooked right now. I think Oklahoma is going to find themselves in that mix to be a playoff team from the SEC as well."

That’s a fair take, but they should still be labeled as more of a high-variance team than a true playoff lock. They could absolutely break through, but they could just as easily stall if the offense doesn’t take a real leap.

The key for the Sooners is whether the team can take a major step offensively after finishing No. 92 in total offense last season, while also replacing key contributors on defense like star EDGE R Mason Thomas, defensive tackles Damonic Williams and Gracen Halton, starting safety Robert Spears-Jennings, and key rotational players like linebacker Kobe McKenzie.

And this is where the optimism gets tested. Replacing that much defensive production while expecting the same elite output is a difficult ask, even for top programs.

If the team is able to still hold serve as one of the better defenses in the sport, while also taking a big step offensively, then we’re no longer talking about “playoff potential," we’re talking about a legitimate national title threat.