SEC vs Big Ten: Kalshi College Football Championship Market Led by Texas and Ohio State

Ahead of the 2026-27 College Football season, Kalshi’s percentages to win the National Championship are extremely close. Texas is favored at 13% and 17 total teams have over a 2% chance to win. All other teams on the board have less than a 1% chance.

2026 College Football National Championship Market - Kalshi

Texas 13%
Notre Dame 11%
Miami 10%
Oregon 10%
Ohio State 10%
Indiana 9%
Georgia 9%
LSU 6%
Texas A&M 4%
Alabama 3%
Michigan 3%
Ole Miss 3%
Texas Tech 3%
Oklahoma 2%
Penn State 2%
Tennessee 2%
USC 2%

In the modern day of college football, there will always be the SEC vs. Big Ten narrative. Among the 17 teams with higher than a 1% chance to win the National Championship, eight of them reside in the SEC and six of them are from the Big Ten.

Since the start of the College Football Playoff era in 2014, 10 of the last 12 National Champions have been from one of those two conferences, except for Clemson in 2016 and 2018. From 2019 to 2022, the SEC ran the table with LSU, Alabama, and Georgia winning those four titles. The Big Ten answered with three straight National Champions from 2023 to 2025 in Michigan, Ohio State, and Indiana.

Horns Up for a Natty

Texas is the outright favorite, and there is plenty to argue that they are deserving of that top spot. They’ve kept most of their offensive and defensive starters intact from last season while also adding the 10th-ranked transfer portal class, including eight 4-star transfers or higher, including receiver Cam Coleman, who was the second-rated player in the portal.

Arch Manning is coming off a 3,163-yard and 26-touchdown season with even higher expectations in his second season as a full-time starter.

Canes & Irish Make Their Case

Both Miami and Notre Dame can very well ruin the SEC and Big Ten parade as they round out the top-3 strongest positions on the board. Both of them were National Championsip runner ups in the last two seasons, giving both of them plenty of experience to work with.

Notre Dame did its best to replenish, losing three of its top-4 receivers, with the additions of Mylan Graham and Quincy Porter for depth around a budding star QB in CJ Carr, who is also the favorite to win the Heisman at Kalshi.

As for Miami, it hit the portal for a QB again and landed 4-star transfer Darian Mensah from Duke to lead their top-20 portal class, which includes six 4-star transfers, three of whom were top-35 players in the cycle. Given their success with transfer QBs having produced a Heisman winner in Cam Ward and a near National Championship run with Carson Beck, it’s hard to overlook their preseason stance.

How to read the National Championship market

In this case, Texas has the highest percentage at 13%. A $10 to win $62.46 if the Longhorns won the title. Notre Dame is the only other team higher than 10% with 11%. A $10 wager would win $75.54 if they win.

As the percentages get lower, the teams become more and more of an underdog to win the National Championship.

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