Paul Finebaum Makes Stance Clear on LSU's College Football Playoff Chances

Paul Finebaum has weighed in on where LSU belongs in the College Football Playoff discussion ahead of the 2026 season.

Jan 8, 2026; Glendale, AZ, USA; Paul Finebaum in attendance of the Mississippi Rebels against the Miami Hurricanes in the 2026 Fiesta Bowl and semifinal game of the College Football Playoff at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The range of possibilities in Lane Kiffin's first season at LSU is one of the most diverse among SEC programs in 2026.

At least one national media pundit has gone as far as to say the expectation for the Tigers in 2026 is to win a national title. That means LSU has to win no less than 10 regular-season games and as many as five postseason games dependent upon its regular-season finish.

ESPN's Paul Finebaum added to the discussion surrounding the Tigers' College Football Playoff hopes on On3's "Crain and Cone."

Finebaum did not lean into some of the more hyperbolic predictions, but he does believe an appearance in the College Football Playoff is attainable in Kiffin's first year on the job.

"I don't buy much of this SEC media days 'championship or bust' that we got a lot of," Finebaum said. "I think the playoff is a minimum, and I think he can do that, and for all the reasons that have been hashed out. He's got a quarterback; he's got a lot of key ingredients. (The) schedule is difficult, but he just has to manage it and not completely blow it up in the first month of the year."

What makes LSU a College Football Playoff contender in 2026?

LSU's aim for a College Football Playoff berth is an unusual expectation for a first-year head coach, but as Finebaum alluded to, its roster gives it one of the strongest chances of any SEC team.

Sam Leavitt was a part of one of college football's biggest turnarounds in recent memory, quarterbacking Arizona State to a College Football Playoff after a 3-9 finish in 2024. The Tigers retained several key pieces from their 2025 roster, but the NCAA transfer portal gifted them many players who were proven commodities at their previous stops.

Aside from stops at a pair of Kiffin's old stomping grounds, most of LSU's toughest opponents in 2026 venture to the friendly confines of Tiger Stadium. Texas A&M travels to Baton Rouge to end September, and the Tigers host Alabama and Texas to begin the month of November.

How do LSU's expectations compare to other SEC teams with first-year head coaches?

Jul 22, 2026; Tampa, FL, USA; Florida Gators head coach Jon Sumrall speaks to the press during SEC Football Kickoff Media Day at the Tampa Marriott. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Four of the six SEC programs that hired new coaches missed out on bowl games in 2025.

Of those four, Florida's schedule allows the most room for growth, but the Gators are not projecting as a potential College Football Playoff contender the way LSU is. Meanwhile, mere bowl eligibility would be satisfactory for Auburn, Arkansas and Kentucky.

Ironically, Ole Miss is another team with a first-year head coach and College Football Playoff expectations. The retention of quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy, retention along the defensive front and portal additions at linebacker and in the secondary put the Rebels into the mix for a second consecutive College Football Playoff appearance.