Paul Finebaum Names SEC Program That Won't Win Seven Games in 2026

Paul Finebaum in attendance of the Mississippi Rebels against the Miami Hurricanes. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Year 3 of the Jeff Lebby era in Starkville is underway.

Year 1 was a disaster as the Mississippi State Bulldogs went 2-10, their worst season since 2003. Year 2 showed progress. Lebby led the team to a 5-8 record, returning to a bowl game for the first time since 2022.

While 5-8 was a good bounce-back season, it's still not an acceptable one at Mississippi State. The program expects more.

Year 3 Pressure in Starkville

That's why there is pressure on Lebby to get things right in 2026. He made some major changes this offseason, firing defensive coordinator Coleman Hutzler after having one of the worst defenses in college football for two straight seasons.

He replaced him with Zach Arnett, who served as the defensive coordinator at Mississippi State from 2020 to 2022 before becoming the head coach in 2023.

One of the biggest issues for the Bulldogs in Lebby's first two seasons has been the defense creating negative plays. Mississippi State has combined for just 31 sacks in two seasons. For comparison, 34 teams had more than that just last season.

They also ranked No. 117 in tackles for loss last season, and No. 128 the year before.

Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Jeff Lebby on the field against the Missouri Tigers. | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Zach Arnett Hire Sparks Hope

That's why the Arnett hire was so big. His defenses are known for being ultra-aggressive and causing negative plays. In his last season as defensive coordinator, the team ranked No. 31 in tackles for loss. They also had 31 sacks that year.

Despite the optimism of his hire, not everyone is sold on a much-improved season this year. ESPN's Paul Finebaum revealed on "The Paul Finebaum Show" that he doesn't see any way Mississippi State wins more than six games in 2026.

"At Minnesota, at (South) Carolina, how do they do with those two games?" Finebaum said. "They've got Missouri and Alabama at home. Can they win one of those? At LSU, that is a loss. Oklahoma, at Texas. see one, two, three, four. I think Mississippi State is possibly going to break even this year. 500. That's about it."

Brutal Schedule Ahead

Finebaum is right that the schedule is tricky. The four-game stretch of Alabama, at LSU, Oklahoma and at Texas is one of the toughest stretches in the country.

On top of that, that stretch is bookended by games against Missouri on one side and the Vanderbilt Commodores on the other. Then, of course, they end the season in the Egg Bowl against the Ole Miss Rebels.

This schedule leaves little margin for error if Mississippi State wants to improve on last season. Because, as it looks, it might be a case where the team looks better, but the record doesn't necessarily show it.

For Lebby, Year 3 will ultimately be defined less by incremental improvement and more by tangible results. In a league as unforgiving as the SEC, progress has to show up in the win column, or the conversation around his future will only get louder as the season unfolds.