Penn State predicted to hire breakout SEC coach to replace James Franklin

The last time Penn State hired a new head football coach, it poached an up-and-coming name from Vanderbilt, and one new projection suggests that history could repeat itself as the Nittany Lions look for a replacement for James Franklin.

Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea has been named an ideal candidate to take over the Penn State coaching vacancy next season, according to a prediction from CBS Sports.

“Lea has shown a rare ability to diagnose shortcomings within his program and address them head-on,” the prediction notes.

“His willingness to adapt and evolve -- in an era defined by roster turnover, portal volatility, and razor-thin margins -- represents exactly the traits required to build and sustain success in modern college football.”

What Clark Lea has done

It’s exactly those traits that make keeping Lea on its sideline the primary objective for Vanderbilt at a key moment in its history.

A native of Nashville who was a walk-on player for the university’s football team and got his first taste of coaching at the school, Lea has dragged the program from the depths of the SEC basement and made it for a time a College Football Playoff contender this season.

Losing another successful head coach would be a major blemish for Vanderbilt, sending a signal that the school is unable to keep valuable personnel, at a time when it’s making serious investments in its football program and in athletics more broadly.

Lea went 9-27 overall and 2-22 in SEC play in his first three seasons at Vanderbilt, but stayed the course and oversaw a major turnaround the last two years.

Following the arrival of quarterback Diego Pavia, the Commodores went 7-6 in 2024 with a historic win over No. 1 Alabama, and are 8-2 coming into the penultimate week of the 2025 regular season.

Vanderbilt has never won 10 games in a football season, but theoretically could in 2025 with Lea on its sideline.

What Clark Lea has said

Lea has repeated the usual script offered by head coaches when their names are put out there during the annual college football coaching carousel.

“My fight is for this program first, and they know that,” Lea said of the outside noise.

“We don’t talk about anything external, but we stay focused on where we are, who we are, and the climb we’re on. They’ve been incredible that way.”

He also outlined how dangerous rumors can be for a team.

“You’ve got to be careful sometimes with how rumors can start and where they come from,” Lea said.

“Once you start addressing one, you almost leave yourself susceptible to having to address all of them. And then what have we done? We’ve brought external to the internal and lost our focus.”

What the markets say

Lea sits in eighth-place among the head coaches listed as favorites to take over at Penn State with just 3 percent odds, according to the latest figures from the prediction market Kalshi.

Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz remains the consistent favorite among predictors, at 36 percent.

James Madison coach Bob Chesney has been gaining serious ground in recent days and is second with 27 percent odds and rising. Georgia Tech head coach Brent Key is third at 18 percent.

(CBS)

All odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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