Predictive market ranks emerging college football coach in close second behind Dan Lanning for LSU job

Predictive market lists Oregon’s Dan Lanning and Tulane’s Jon Sumrall as frontrunners for LSU head coaching vacancy.

Tulane Green Wave head coach Jon Sumrall has emerged as a top candidate for the LSU job after Brian Kelly's firing. / Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images

The next LSU head coach remains a mystery, at least according to the predictive markets. Kalshi Inc., the New York-based event exchange, has posted odds that reflect where money and sentiment align. Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning currently sits as the favorite at 40 percent, followed closely by Tulane’s Jon Sumrall at 36 percent and Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin at 24 percent.

The projections highlight how fast Sumrall’s name has surged in coaching circles. Once a small-school leader known for creativity and connection, he now stands just a few percentage points behind two established SEC head coaches for one of the sport’s most prominent jobs. His inclusion near the top of a predictive market for LSU marks the first time a Group of Five coach has been viewed as a serious contender in this cycle.

While betting exchanges like Kalshi are not official hiring forecasts, they reflect aggregated speculation across the sport. The growing momentum behind Sumrall underscores how his track record has captured the attention of both insiders and investors tracking this volatile coaching carousel.

Jon Sumrall’s Rapid Rise Draws National Attention

Jon Sumrall’s climb from small-school innovator to Power Four target has been built on vision and persistence. When he took over at Troy in 2021, he walked through the empty facility visualizing what it could become. That included calling his wife to order blenders for a makeshift nutrition room, then convincing a local peanut butter plant to donate monthly pallets to the team. “He can literally connect with anyone,” former Troy athletic director Brent Jones said.

That resourcefulness has translated into consistent success. Sumrall has posted a .791 winning percentage as a head coach, winning two Sun Belt titles at Troy before leading Tulane to an American Athletic Conference championship appearance in his debut season. His Green Wave are 6-1 and remain in the College Football Playoff conversation despite losing key starters to the transfer portal.

Tulane Green Wave head coach Jon Sumrall and the Green Wave are 6-1 and unbeaten in AAC play this season. / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Sumrall’s leadership extends beyond the field. He uses data-driven self-assessments and individualized goal sheets to build accountability within his program. Players list academic, leadership, and character goals, then track their progress. “I love this stuff,” Sumrall said. “Find the problems and attack the problems. I empower them.”

Despite his rising profile, Sumrall continues to insist his focus remains on Tulane. “I’ve got one job offer right now,” he said. “It’s to be the head coach at Tulane, and I’m all in on that.”

Tulane will travel to face the University of Texas San Antonio on Thursday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

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