SEC College Football Playoff: Favorites, Contenders, Dreamers in Week 5

Everything is allegedly bigger in the SEC, including possibly the need for some CFP revenge. The Big Ten has won the last two CFP titles, and the SEC is on the hunt. We've already updated the national big picture on the CFP, but here's an SEC-centric breakdown on the SEC's Playoff tiers.

The Favorites

Gunner Stockton and Georgia are the current SEC CFP favorite | Alan Poizner-Imagn Images

Georgia remains the solid leader here. The Bulldogs' 3-0 start is about to get much tougher with a home game against Alabama, but the Dawgs shape up well.

The only remaining road games are Auburn and Mississippi State, and the annual battle with Florida doesn't look very daunting. Alabama and Texas could be threats, as could Ole Miss, but all three of those games are played at home. Georgia is in the driver's seat and, barring three losses, should secure a spot in the CFP.

Ole Miss is the team that ESPN loves for a second SEC slot. They have the Rebels at a 68.4% chance of making the Playoff per FPI, which is the fourth-highest in all of college football, behind Ohio State, Georgia, and Oregon.

The Rebels have three tough games ahead: home against LSU this week, followed by a trip to Georgia and then a back-to-back matchup at Oklahoma in mid-October. Winning one of the three would mean a 10-2 season that's probably CFP-worthy. That's a pretty safe run.

The Contenders

John Mateer and Oklahoma have a rough schedule but remain an SEC CFP contender. | BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Oklahoma is the hot property here, off a second top 25 win in four weeks. The Sooner schedule is all that keeps their 4-0 mark from moving them into favorite territory. The annual battle with Texas is still ahead, and a five-game closing run of Ole Miss, at Tennessee, at Alabama, Missouri, and LSU sounds pretty brutal.

The SEC almost certainly places three teams in the field and could place four. A 9-3 mark with the schedule that Oklahoma faces needs to be the goal. Of those six games listed, a split probably gets things done for the Sooners.

Texas A&M, at 3-0, might not be as good a team, but it has a better path ahead. A&M does have road battles at LSU, Missouri, and Texas, but the home slate isn't bad, with Auburn this coming week as probably the toughest foe. If the Aggies can hold serve at home, they're in better shape to forge nine or even 10 wins than the Sooners.

Tennessee has a loss, which causes them to be forgotten. But their path moving ahead is smooth. Yes, they still have to play at Alabama and host Oklahoma. But that's about it. At home against Vanderbilt might be the third toughest game still left. A 9-3 Tennessee team would get consideration, but this could well be a 10-2 Tennessee team, which is almost certainly good enough.

Texas hasn't played well, but the path still makes their appearance plausible. Oklahoma, Georgia, and A&M are really the only tough squads left on the schedule. Georgia is a road game, A&M is a home game, and OU is a neutral-site battle. It's entirely possible that Texas/Texas A&M in the final week of the regular season ends up being a CFP elimination battle.

Alabama is at the absolute back of the contender group. Several of the teams listed below make more sense. But Alabama is Alabama. Beat Georgia on Saturday, and the path is there again. Take a second loss and it's hard not to see a couple more coming at Mizzou, at home against Tennessee, LSU, and Oklahoma, or at Auburn. Winning on Saturday puts Bama in the hunt; losing almost eliminates them entirely.

The Dreamers

Ahmad Hardy and Missouri are hanging on the fringes of the SEC's CFP picture. | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Mizzou is the sneaky team here. They're 4-0 and don't play on the road until October 18th at Auburn. But Alabama, A&M, and Oklahoma await down the stretch. For that matter, road contests with Auburn and Vandy could get challenging. See how the Tigers finish October. If they can win two of the Alabama, at Auburn, and at Vanderbilt games, a 7-1 Missouri team may well slide into the CFP. But even a second loss in that bunch would be tough.

LSU is 4-0 but still has some heavy lifting to do. Saturday's game at Ole Miss is pivotal. Trips to Alabama and Oklahoma are still ahead on the schedule, as is a home game against A&M. If LSU takes down the Rebels on Saturday, they will be moved up to The Contenders. But if they lose, they stay here.

Vanderbilt? Not insane. They're 4-0. But October will bring them to reality. A slate of at Alabama and then at home with LSU and Mizzou will either rubber-stamp Vandy as a contender or expose them. 2-1 in that bunch makes the Tigers legitimate, 1-2 keeps them on the fringes.