Seven college football programs under the most pressure in Week 10

Oklahoma Sooners head coach Brent Venables before the game against the Ole Miss Rebels at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Last week delivered the official knockout blow to a handful of teams clinging to fading conference championship hopes or wishful College Football Playoff aspirations.

LSU is the obvious one, but reigning Big 12 champion and 2024 CFP team Arizona State saw both of those goals move out of reach. Former top-10-ranked Illinois faced the firm reality that this season is going to fall short of optimistic hopes. Missouri and Oklahoma have moved out of SEC contention, now needing to win out to maintain CFP potential.

And there will be more casualties in Week 10.

These are the teams under the most pressure entering the weekend as the calendar flips to November.

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1. Oklahoma

Oklahoma always seemed on the brink of a perilous tipping point just with how its second-half schedule set up -- either it was going to persevere through the gauntlet of ranked opponents and benefit in a big way, or a once-promising season had the potential to totally implode.

It can still go either way for the No. 18-ranked Sooners (6-2, 2-2 SEC) as it visits No. 14 Tennessee (6-2, 3-2) Saturday in Knoxville.

The loss at home last week to Ole Miss hurt, though, there's no getting around that. Oklahoma now has back-to-back road games (sandwiched around a bye week) against the Vols and No. 4 Alabama, then hosts No. 19 Missouri at home and finally faces an LSU team that may or may not find some rejuvenation following the coaching change.

Oklahoma could realistically afford to lose one game in this daunting overall stretch, and unfortunately for the Sooners, it already did. Now they have to win out to have any shot at the CFP. No three-loss team earned an at-large berth into the 12-team playoff bracket last year, and it's doubtful that will change this season.

But again, it's not just about whether the Sooners can surge their way into the playoffs or not. It's also the alternative peril of the loss to Ole Miss being the start of a true second-half collapse.

Oklahoma could lose to any -- or all -- of these remaining opponents (the Sooners are just 1-2 against teams in the current AP top 25, after all), which means Brent Venables isn't just coaching for Oklahoma's playoff hopes but also perhaps his job.

This felt like a make-or-break season for Venables in his fourth year at Oklahoma. He has two 6-7 finishes and a 10-3 season with a loss in the Alamo Bowl. The Sooners finished 15th in the AP poll that year and were unranked in the other two. A third season out of the final rankings in four years would be pretty damning at a program where the fan base couldn't seem more excited to see Lincoln Riley and his string of playoff appearances leave town.

The Sooners are 3.5-point underdogs Saturday in Knoxville. As for the Vols, we'll circle back to them momentarily.

2. Texas

Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian reacts to a replay on the video scoreboard during the second quarter against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

No. 20 Texas (6-2, 3-1) has been keeping its season on life support for weeks now, needing overtime to get past the likes of Kentucky and Mississippi State -- who are a combined 0-9 in SEC play -- the last two Saturdays.

Another loss and the preseason No. 1-ranked Longhorns will be assured of missing the CFP after reaching the semifinals last year, and they'll have to stave off elimination against one of the best stories in college football with No. 9 Vanderbilt (7-1, 3-1) coming to town.

Texas may also be without starting quarterback Arch Manning, who has been in the concussion protocol this week and is officially listed as questionable while awaiting clearance for Saturday.

Even still, Texas is presently listed as a 3.5-point favorite at home in a must-win game.

3. Tennessee

Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar (6) and Tennessee tight end Ethan Davis (0) celebrate after a touchdown during a NCAA football game against Kentucky at Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky on Oct. 25, 2025. | Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

OK, back to the Vols ...

No. 14 Tennessee (6-2, 3-2) has seemed unimpressive this season, winning the games it is supposed to win (and barely in some cases) while losing to the only two ranked teams it has played.

That the Vols are still ranked so highly is a reflection of preseason expectations following their playoff appearance last year, and perhaps also of their close loss to Georgia in overtime in September. They also got blown out by Alabama (37-20) and haven't beaten anyone of note, needing overtime to get past Mississippi State and narrowly beating Arkansas by three points at home after an insignificant non-conference schedule.

Their best win came last week over reeling Kentucky, albeit in a comfortable 56-34 victory.

So to be listed as 3.5-point favorites against a ranked opponent seems mighty generous, even at home.

Tennessee's CFP hopes are also at stake Saturday, while they're already out of the SEC championship race, for all intents and purposes. The only reason they're two spots lower on this list than Oklahoma is that coach Josh Heupel's job is safe regardless after 30 wins and two final top-10 rankings over the last three years.

4. Miami

Miami Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck (11) throws the football against the Louisville Cardinals during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

No. 10 Miami shook off that loss to Louisville and responded encouragingly last week with a 42-7 obliteration of Stanford.

Everything is still on the table for the Hurricanes (6-1, 2-1 ACC), although they do not control their own destiny in the ACC. But regardless, win out and they'll be in the CFP.

Another loss, though, and that becomes dicey.

Miami has two real hurdles left to get to that finish line, and one is this week on the road at SMU (5-3, 3-1). The Mustangs were a playoff team last year and were ranked earlier this season. They haven't been bad, but they haven't been especially inspiring either, losing to Baylor, TCU and a painful 13-12 loss at Wake Forest last week.

With only one conference loss, SMU is technically still alive in the ACC race, though, and will surely embrace that for as long as it lasts. So this is far from a layup for Miami on Saturday, even if the Hurricanes are listed as 10.5-point favorites on the road.

5. USC

Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley talks with players during the first half against the Illinois Fighting Illini in September. Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

USC coach Lincoln Riley acknowledged his culpability in the Trojans letting a third quarter lead turn into a stinging 34-24 loss at Notre Dame two weekends ago -- namely in the way of questionable play-calling, including a momentum-shifting fumble on an ill-advised trick play designed for a wide receiver to take a reverse and attempt a pass when the offense was moving the ball fine as is.

Riley has already been under heightened pressure and scrutiny the whole season after back-to-back disappointing finishes the last two years (8-5 and 7-6), and the loss at Notre Dame was a major missed opportunity to change the narrative.

Even still, No. 23 USC (5-2, 3-1 Big Ten) can still do that over the final five games. In fact, the Trojans could put themselves very much in the CFP discussion if they win out with a huge opportunity at No. 6 Oregon in late November.

But that's a big if until Riley can prove he can consistently win games on the road, which is very, very much in question. USC blew fourth-quarter leads in losses at Michigan, Minnesota, Maryland and Washington last year, with its only true road victory (excluding neutral-site games) coming against crosstown rival UCLA. This year, USC is 1-2 on the road with a win at Purdue, a tough loss in the final minute at Illinois and the loss in South Bend.

So nothing can be assumed as the Trojans visit Nebraska (6-2, 3-2) on Saturday, even with the Cornhuskers looking very mediocre despite their record.

USC is a 4.5-point road favorite and needs to win this one.

6. Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt's quarterback Diego Pavia (2) celebrates his go-ahead touchdown against Missouri during their game at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025. | Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

There's two ways to look at this.

In one light, anything else Vanderbilt does to further elevate its incredible narrative is a bonus. The No. 9 Commodores (7-1, 3-1 SEC) are off to their best start since 1941 and have their highest ranking since 1937. Really, think about that.

That said, Vandy isn't a fluke and can absolutely take this season to another level, and it will ultimately feel like a missed opportunity now if the Commodores don't push for a playoff berth all the way to the end.

This isn't a must-win game as even with two losses Vanderbilt would still have a case for CFP consideration if wins out the rest of the way, but Texas is very vulnerable and beatable, as noted. This is a prime opportunity for Vandy to notch a third straight win over a ranked opponent -- following wins over LSU and Missouri.

After this, the Commodores get Auburn (which, despite its record, has played tough in every game), Kentucky and then a road game at Tennessee to close out the schedule. They could absolutely win all of those games and guarantee a playoff berth, even if they don't get into the SEC championship game.

There is a lot riding on this trip to Austin -- including QB Diego Pavia's Heisman Trophy campaign.

7. Cincinnati

Cincinnati Bearcats quarterback Brendan Sorsby points to fans as he walks off the field after defeating the Baylor Bears at Nippert Stadium. Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images | Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

Cincinnati might be the best story in college football that nobody is talking about.

Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech deserve the headlines, absolutely. BYU is getting its due after an 8-0 start as well.

But the No. 17 Bearcats (7-1, 5-0 Big 12) are a fun story too. They went 3-9 and 5-7 in coach Scott Satterfield's first two seasons, which were also the program's first two seasons since moving up from the Group of Five level to the Big 12.

This year, Cincinnati very much looks like it belongs. After a tough three-point loss to Nebraska in Week 1, the Bearcats have reeled off seven straight wins, including a highly impressive 41-20 blowout of Baylor last week.

Cincinnati is very much alive in the Big 12 race and CFP chase heading into a pivotal matchup at No. 24 Utah (6-2, 3-2) on Saturday night in Salt Lake City.

ESPN's "College GameDay" will be on site to hype up the game, giving a deserved spotlight to a very good Cincinnati team led by one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. Brendan Sorsby, in his second year at Cincinnati after transferring from Indiana, has passed for 1,843 yards, 20 touchdowns and 1 interception and rushed for 425 yards and 7 scores.

Utah is a 10.5-point favorite Saturday night, which feels a bit inflated.

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