The 5 college football games Joel Klatt says will decide the Big Ten in 2026

The Big Ten schedule came out last week, and it's loaded with intriguing matchups.

Fox college football analyst Joel Klatt, pictured with Ohio State coach Ryan Day, broke down the 2026 Big Ten schedule. | Doral Chenoweth/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Big Ten has taken the reins of college football by winning the last three national championships, with Michigan, Ohio State and Indiana.

So whichever team prevails out of that conference in 2026 has to be viewed as a favorite to compete for the next national title.

That makes the Big Ten's official 2026 schedule release last week prime offseason fodder to dissect from all angles.

Fox college football analyst Joel Klatt weighed in with his thoughts Monday on his podcast and YouTube show, spotlighting the five games on the Big Ten slate he expects will have the biggest impact on the conference race.

Here was his list.

RELATED: Breaking down the toughest and easiest Big Ten football schedules for 2026

1. Ohio State at Indiana, Oct. 17

Indiana coach Curt Cignetti, left, and Ohio State coach Ryan Day are set for a mid-October showdown in Bloomington next season. | Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

This was an easy choice for the top of the list and shouldn't get much debate.

The last two national champions both return in 2026 with loaded rosters once again and every expectation of being right back in the College Football Playoff chase.

The Hoosiers and Buckeyes dueled in the Big Ten championship game this past season, with Indiana winning 13-10 to secure its first conference title since 1967 and lock up the No. 1 seed for the playoffs on its way to the national championship.

The Hoosiers will look almost entirely different offensively with TCU quarterback transfer Josh Hoover replacing Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, along with an entirely new backfield and largely retooled receiving corps, with top contributors like RBs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black and WRs Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt moving on to the NFL. But coach Curt Cignetti and Co. reloaded pretty well on both sides of the ball.

Ohio State returns star QB Julian Sayin and WR Jeremiah Smith, but its elite defense lost projected first-round NFL draft picks like EDGE Arvell Reese, S Caleb Downs and LB Sonny Styles, among others.

Regardless, the Buckeyes are a perennial top national contender, and the Hoosiers might be in that same tier now after their breakthrough the last two years.

Ohio State is the only team to beat Indiana in the regular season in Cignetti's two years, winning 38-15 in Columbus, Ohio, late in the 2024 campaign. (That's one of just two losses overall in Cignetti's tenure, for that matter, with the other coming to Notre Dame in the playoffs that same season.)

"I think that the most important game on the schedule -- not biggest rivalry, I'm talking about to crown a champion, based on rosters, based on schedules -- I think that Oct. 17 matchup, Ohio State at Indiana is likely the biggest game from a meaningful perspective toward the conference championship. That one is going to be a monster," Klatt said.

"They'll be tested on the road up to that point -- maybe they win one of those games, maybe they win both of those games. But that one is going to be a phenomenal game.

"Indiana has been so good at home. They've been so good, period -- they just won the national championship -- but man, there's something about them in Bloomington, they blow people out."

2. Oregon at Ohio State, Nov. 7

Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day (left) and Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning shake hands ahead of their playoff matchup during the 2024 season. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The second game on Klatt's list is another clash of 2025 CFP teams as Oregon visits Ohio State on Nov. 7.

The Ducks won the Big Ten title in 2024 -- their first year in the conference -- and reached the CFP semifinals this past season before losing to Indiana.

Oregon and Ohio State didn't meet in 2025, but they played twice in 2024, with the Ducks winning a 32-31 duel at home in mid-October as part of their undefeated regular season. But the Buckeyes turned the tables in the playoffs that year, beating Oregon 41-21 in the quarterfinals.

It's certainly likely this 2026 meeting will have major ramifications toward the Big Ten title.

Both teams lost plenty of talent to the NFL draft and otherwise, but returning QBs Sayin and Dante Moore will headline the matchup.

"This one is, like, obvious to me because these two teams and rosters play at the top of college football," Klatt said. "That's a monster game. By the way, that's on the back of a trip out west for Ohio State to USC. Here's the caveat now. Oct. 31, Ohio State goes to USC.

"They are going to be lobbying hard for a game that does not kick at 7 p.m. Eastern, so they do not have to wait all day and then kick their game and fly home and get back to Columbus at 4 in the morning and then have a short week of prep for the next week as Oregon comes to town.

"If you look at Oregon's schedule, right before that trip to Ohio State, you've got a game at home against Northwestern. So that one is going to be a monster game."

3. Michigan at Ohio State, Nov. 28

Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood will hope for a better performance in his second meeting with rival Ohio State in 2026. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Michigan-Ohio State rivalry is simply one of the best and most intense in college football, so of course it belongs on this or any list of most important Big Ten games in 2026.

The Wolverines had won four straight in the series, including a stunning 13-10 win in Columbus in 2024 that kept the Buckeyes out of the Big Ten title game in a season in which they'd nonetheless win the national championship. But Ohio State dominated in the last meeting, winning 27-9 in Ann Arbor, Michigan, last season.

A lot has changed for the programs since then, of course. Michigan fired coach Sherrone Moore for off-the-field matters and hired longtime Utah coach Kyle Whittingham to reset the program. Whittingham's first installment of the rivalry series with Ohio State will be an important barometer for what he's building there -- and, yes, likely for the Big Ten championship picture at-large.

"No. 3 game that's going to decide the conference -- Michigan-Ohio State. It always does, and this one fell just below those other two, but this one is always going to be right there," Klatt said. "Depending on how these two teams that lost the schedule lottery get through their schedules, we always know that one of them is going to be vying for a place in that championship game.

"You just anticipate it, you think you know it, the rivalry is there, and I can't wait for that game, as always. That is my favorite game. It obviously goes on the list as Michigan is going to go to Ohio State. Remember, they won two years ago there. I still can't believe they won that game."

4. Oregon at USC, Sept. 26

USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley, left, and Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning talk before a game at Autzen Stadium. | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

For his fourth choice, Klatt made an interesting point about the way the schedule is set up in the Big Ten.

"This one's an interesting one because early in the season, in September, I think you're going to get a matchup that's going to basically crown one side of the conference. I know we don't have divisions here, but I'm talking about just like the West Coast. Because these teams all play each other out West the way that the schedules are made, and so you've got to kind of be the best out West if you're going to compete for and win a Big Ten title," Klatt said.

Oregon has certainly been the best out west since joining the Big Ten, going 17-1 in Big Ten play (not counting the 2024 Big Ten championship win over Penn State).

USC is still trying to break through in the Big Ten, meanwhile, going 7-6 overall and 4-5 in the conference in 2024 and then 9-4 (7-2) last season.

Oregon beat the Trojans at home, 42-27 last November, and has won four straight meetings overall.

Both teams have their star QBs back in 2026, with Moore returning to Oregon and Jayden Maiava back at USC.

"I think that's a phenomenal game. USC is confident, their coaching staff is confident, Lincoln [Riley] is confident. They feel like they've got a team that is going to compete for and potentially be in the Big Ten championship game. And I'm here for it -- I hope that that's the case," Klatt said.

"Obviously, they've got experience at the right positions. They're going to have to obviously replace a guy like [wide receiver] Makai Lemon, who was incredible -- that's going to be difficult to do -- and they need to get better on the offensive and defensive line.

"They've got to get better on the interior of their defensive front 7, but if they do -- if they do -- watch out for USC. There's a lot of confidence coming out, and we're going to know which team we need to pay attention to from the West on Sept. 26 when Oregon goes to USC, and they face Lincoln Riley and the Trojans."

5. Penn State at Michigan, Oct. 17

Michigan football head coach Kyle Whittingham speaks as he is being introduced on the floor during the first half between Michigan and USC at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

There's no question that two of the more intriguing teams from a curiosity standpoint in the Big Ten this year are Penn State and Michigan.

The Nittany Lions start a new era under head coach Matt Campbell, while Michigan resets with Whittingham.

Both rosters underwent considerable overhauling, so it's hard to know exactly what to expect from either team at this point.

"Here's a sneaky one. This one's totally off the radar, and by the way, I could have picked a lot of games here at No. 5. There are a lot of really, really good games, but there is a sneaky, sneaky game, and it goes back to the schedule lottery like I was talking about," Klatt said.

"The toughest game that Penn State has on their schedule is at Michigan, and I'm going to put that right here. Oct. 17, Penn State goes to Michigan, and by the way, it's likely not even going to be the best game of the day because also on Oct. 17, Ohio State goes to Indiana. All eyes are going to be on Bloomington. ...

"But here's Penn State over in the distance. Guys, they could be undefeated by that point. They've got nothing on their schedule -- Marshall, at Temple, Buffalo, Wisconsin, at Northwestern and then hosting USC. If they can beat USC, which I think is probably going to be a White Out game ... they could be undefeated going to Michigan. They would certainly at that point be at a minimum in the top 12 in the country, they would have a ton of momentum.

"Based on how Michigan plays early against Oklahoma in that home game, that is a monster game. And it could, it could put Penn State on a path where if they were to beat USC and they were to beat Michigan, we would be sitting there looking at the rest of their schedule -- off, Purdue, at Washington, Minnesota, Rutgers, at Maryland -- and we'd be thinking to ourselves, not only is this a playoff team but is this team going to go to the Big Ten championship game and maybe win it.

"That's a monster game, and it's a really under-the-radar game because it's not even the best game of the day. Can't wait for Oct. 17."