Urban Meyer sends clear message on Lincoln Riley's future at USC

There were plenty of people stunned by Penn State's decision to fire head coach James Franklin, which really got the college football coaching carousel going this season. It begs the question: Who could be the next notable head coach to be fired before the season's end?

Speculation has been growing about Lincoln Riley's future at USC, which has seen the Trojans fail to meet lofty expectations the past few seasons.

In Riley's first season, the Trojans made the Pac-12 championship game, finishing 11-3 (8-1 Pac-12), and ended the year with a loss to Tulane in the Cotton Bowl.

That team was led by Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams, who passed for over 4,500 yards and 42 touchdowns, but USC failed to win when it mattered most. The Trojans lost both games to Utah, including the Pac-12 championship, and also had a disappointing bowl performance against Tulane.

Things continued to trend in the wrong direction in 2023. USC lost five of its last six regular-season games, but rebounded with a win over Louisville in the Holiday Bowl. However, the Trojans finished with a 4-5 conference record in 2024, prompting many fans to question whether Riley was on the hot seat going into this year.

FOX Sports analyst Urban Meyer addressed this speculation as the Trojans enjoy a bye week before a massive Big Ten matchup against Nebraska. He offered a strong take on Riley's future with the program on the latest episode of The Triple Option podcast.

USC head coach Lincoln Riley before a game against Illinois | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

"No chance," Meyer said emphatically when asked if Riley could be fired this season. "No chance. No chance."

USC is currently 5-2 overall (3-1 Big Ten), but has lost two of its last three games, including a loss to Notre Dame last weekend. The Trojans do have a win over then-ranked No. 15 Michigan, which the Trojans won convincingly (31-13).

Losses to Illinois and Notre Dame have overshadowed that win, as some are concerned about a late-season collapse that has plagued this program over the last two years.

Meyer stood his ground as co-host Mark Ingram pushed back on the idea that Riley had 'no chance' of losing his job this year.

"You make a decision, you go back in your office. You have a Rolodex on your phone now; it used to be a Rolodex. Do you start calling the billionaires, or the hundreds of millionaires, and say, 'All right, here we go, I'm going to make a decision. I need a check for $20 million.'

"I'm trying to think, what the hell do you do? I need $70 million, there's not a line item on the... You know, there's budgets. You've got revenue and you've got expenses, and I think that's economics 101. When there's a line item that doesn't show up and all the sudden it's a bunch of zeros behind it, eight figures behind it, is that a phone call to a person? Here's the phone call, we have to make this change."

Meyer continues to doubt programs are willing to pay massive buyouts due to a finite amount of money being available, but that was not the case at Penn State or Florida earlier this season. In fact, nine FBS college football head coaches have been fired this year, bringing the total amount of buyouts owed up to $116 million.

Riley has the second-highest buyout in college football, totaling $90 million, trailing only Georgia head coach Kirby Smart. If USC were to make the decision to fire Riley, it would be the most expensive buyout in college football history, surpassing Jimbo Fisher's $76.8 million buyout from Texas A&M in 2023.

In four seasons, Riley is 31-16 overall with the Trojans. He's led the program to back-to-back bowl wins and three consecutive bowl appearances, but the standard is championships, which Riley has failed to deliver.

USC will look to remain in the Big Ten championship race next weekend after a much-needed bye week. The Trojans will travel to Lincoln to face Nebraska on Nov. 1. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 pm CT on NBC.